The retreat by radical Islamist militias from Mogadishu opens a window of hope for Somalia, a country that has known too much violence and anarchy.
When the Supreme Council of Islamic Courts took control of the capital last June, its forces restored a semblance of order to a city where trigger-happy warlords had dominated for more than a decade. At first, many residents embraced changes that brought less danger and more stability.
SCIC leaders said fears about an “African Taliban” were unwarranted, but it wasn’t long before extremists began floggings and imposed harsh restrictions on Somali lifestyles. In Talibanesque fashion, Somali women were ordered to wear veils, theaters screening soccer matches were shut down, and the rulers threatened to behead people who didn’t pray five times a day.
The world might have been content to let developments play out, but alarm bells went off when Hassan Dahir Aweys, founder of a group allegedly linked to al-Qaeda, was anointed SCIC leader. Aweys is listed on U.S. and U.N. terror lists. U.S. officials kept a wary eye from its military base in nearby Djibouti, as did officials in neighboring Ethiopia, who sent troops across the border. In October, the Islamic Courts declared a “holy war” against Ethiopia and in December they ordered Ethiopian troops out of Somalia. Ethiopia, with one of the largest armies in Africa, responded by taking the offensive, routing Islamist gunmen and prompting the Islamists to abandon Mogadishu without a fight. The Islamists’ retreat was stunning, but few doubt they gave up power only in order to avoid certain defeat. Like the Taliban which is seeking to regain its position in Afghanistan, Somali Islamists surely hope to return when the heat dies down in Mogadishu.
Somalia is now operating with a weak interim government led by Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed. The government lacks well-trained troops able to quell an insurgency. Ethiopia says it cannot afford to keep its troops in Somalia for more than a few more weeks or months and members of the international community must lend a hand to bolster the transitional government and ensure that Somalia continues to operate without draconian rule by Islamists or feuding warlords.
The U.N. Security Council should quickly figure out a way to replace Ethiopian troops with a neutral force. The African Union has is willing to deploy peacekeepers and that should be done quickly. Otherwise extremists will regain their foothold, inflict their harsh rule on Somalis and give terrorists a friendly field of operations.
