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'Green fatigue' leads to fear of backlash over climate change

This article is more than 16 years old
Britons know that the planet is heating up - but are still not ready to change their lifestyle

British people are now convinced about the dangers of global warming but are either baffled about how to stop it or are ignoring the issue.

Analysts say few people are taking action to deal with the threat of climate change, although over the past 12 months the vast majority have come to accept that it poses a real threat to the world. Opinion polls reveal much confusion among the public about what Britain should do to combat the problem.

A backlash is now a real threat, said Phil Downing, head of environmental research for Ipsos Mori. 'There's cynicism because on the one hand we're being told [the problem] is very serious and on the other hand we're building runways, mining Alaskan oil; there's a lot going on that appears to be heading in the opposite direction.'

This is particularly evident in the huge public resistance to green taxes. 'There's a cynicism the government is using the green agenda as an excuse for hitting motorists and people who want to fly,' added Downing.

In short, 2007 may have brought final acceptance of the danger of global warming, but it has not triggered demands for urgent action. However, Chris West, head of the government-sponsored UK Climate Impacts Programme, believes there are signs it is starting. 'The people who before were saying, "It may or may not be happening, who cares?" are now saying, "This is something we'll have to deal with - but how do we do it?" And the people already accepting the fact and struggling with how to do it are actually getting fed up with how difficult it's been to do something and are finding their own ways of dealing with the issue.'

Barbara Young, chief executive of the Environment Agency, agreed. The 'vast majority' of British businesses 'are still not into sustainability and climate change', she warned.

In Britain, people have made no noticeable changes to their behaviour and are taking increased numbers of car journeys, going on more flights, pumping out more carbon dioxide and using more electricity to heat their homes. At the same time there is deep antagonism towards green taxes and the introduction of wind farms to the countryside to generate carbon-free electricity.

But we do at least understand the danger we are in, experts added. Pat Thomas, editor of the Ecologist, said reports about conditions at the North and South Poles - including the breaking up of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, the opening of the North-west Passage through the Arctic, and studies which suggested the Arctic could be ice-free in summer by 2013 - had been particularly important in changing public perceptions.

In addition, changes in seasons, campaigning films, storms, floods and media reports about spreading droughts helped convince a once-sceptical nation in 2007 that global warming is real and man-made. Opinion polls now indicate that nine out of 10 UK citizens believe climate change is occurring and is being driven by human activities - in particular increases in industrial emissions of carbon dioxide.

Publication of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change latest reports on global warming were also important. In 2007, the IPCC declared it now believed it was more than 90 per cent likely that climate change was being triggered by humans; that natural systems on all continents are being affected; and that humans have eight years to avoid the worst effects impacting on the environment. 'The IPCC's message wasn't tremendously different [from past reports], it's just that its evidence was very much better,' added West.

Other influential events included the Australian drought and the forest fires that swept through Greece and California. Then Britain suffered its wettest summer on record and some of its worst flooding for decades. Thousands of homes were devastated and billions of pounds worth of damage caused. 'This is the stuff of climate change, so we'd better get ready because there's a lot more where this comes from,' added Young. 'The reality is that the physical impacts of climate change have probably been with us for some time.' Or as Thomas put it: 'People are now experiencing climate change in their own lives.'

But if these events were crucial in convincing the public that man-made climate change was real, imminent and potentially highly destructive, there has also been considerable difficulty about how it can deal with the problem. The report by Ipsos Mori that found that almost nine out of 10 people believe climate change is happening also revealed that there was a lack of understanding about what should be done to counteract it. In particular, it was discovered that there is a general reluctance for people to do anything significant on their own. Although 70 per cent thought 'the world will soon experience a major environmental crisis', virtually nobody said they were prepared to do anything about it beyond trying to reuse plastic bags and recycle some rubbish.

The problem is heightened by the government's own failure to halt rises of carbon dioxide emissions, despite its pledges to cut them drastically. Traffic on UK roads rose in the first three quarters of 2007, peaking at 132 billion vehicle kilometres between July to September. At the same time, numbers of flights worldwide rose 4.7 per cent to nearly 30 million during 2007. In Britain, carbon emissions have risen in five out of the 10 years that New Labour have been in power and are now 2.2 per cent higher than they were in 1997. By any standards the government is doing very badly when it comes to taking effective action to deal with carbon emissions.

There are some encouraging signs with more people taking action into their own hands, for example by insulating their lofts to cut fuel bills, or by joining movements like Transition Towns where communities agree to reduce their dependence on coal, oil and gas. Businesses are investing in more eco-friendly products in expectation, said Richard Lambert, the CBI's director-general. 'They are ahead of the consumer.'

Whether the public becomes more proactive in 2008 when it comes to climate change depends on several issues, added analysts.

A key factor will be the weather, said West. 'If we have a nice average year, whatever that means, people will say: "Climate change: what of it?" But if we have either an extreme heatwave or more flooding, I think there's going to be a cumulative effect. The next time we have a national-scale weather-related emergency, people will say: "Enough ... we can't allow this to be normal". In a way, if that happens, it makes our job easier, but clearly I don't want to wish a disaster on anyone.'

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