Preamble: Tonight President Obama delivers a crucial speech on his plans for the US economy and joblessness to a special joint session of Congress, to be televisied live at 7pm ET (midnight BST).
In the past Obama has relied on his ability to give a big, high profile speech to gain political momentum and assauge his critics. This time – with the American economy in the doldrums, unemployment stubbornly high at 9%, increased public discontent and intransigent opposition from the Republican opposition – Obama's rhetorical skills may have met their match.
What can we expect from Obama's speech? The emphasis will be solidly on jobs and job creation, the key political fact of the last 12 months as hopes for a recovery has first faded and then disappeared.
More specifically, according to the heavily trailed contents, Obama plans to offer some specific spending increases and tax cuts designed to restart job creation. How or if he can pay for them depends on how much he can win over the Republicans who control the House of Representatives.
With a presidential election looming next year, Republicans have little incentive to save Obama's own job. But opinion polls show rising dissatisfaction with the response of the Republican party in Congress. While Obama's popularity has slipped to new lows, he is still better liked that Congressional Republicans.
So what will we learn tonight? According to the Washington Post, not much blue sky as opposed to more of the same, with perhaps $300bn in new spending:
The president's plan, in large part, will call for continuing current measures to stimulate the economy, including a 2 percentage-point payroll-tax cut and extended unemployment benefits, administration officials say. Obama is also likely to call for an additional tax cut for companies that hire workers. Those measures together could cost about $200 billion next year.
Obama is planning to propose $100 billion or more in spending on infrastructure, state and local aid, and programs that target people who have been unemployed for more than six months, according to officials and other people familiar with the deliberations.
Not only will he pledge new spending to spur hiring, he is also likely to call for overhauling the way the government spends money. This could include an infrastructure bank that would pool tens of billions of federal dollars with state or private money to build roads and commercial buildings and to rehabilitate schools. Obama has suggested that the initiatives could lead to the hiring of one million unemployed construction workers.
Will Republicans go for it? According to the New York Times, possibly some GOP members might like tax cuts:
This week, Senator Scott P Brown, a Republican from Massachusetts, became one of the first in his party to call the tax cut "a policy that we should all support." Jon M Huntsman Jr, the former Utah governor who is running for president, has said he thinks the cut is a good idea.
On Wednesday, Representative Eric Cantor, the House majority leader, said that the tax cut "is something I supported in the past," and that the matter "will be part of the discussions ongoing." (Two weeks ago his spokesman, Brad Dayspring, said that Mr Cantor "has long believed that there are better ways to grow the economy and create jobs than temporary tax relief.")
House Speaker John A Boehner also said Thursday morning, in response to a question concerning the tax relief, that he was open to what the president had to say.
For more background, my colleagues at the Guardian have put together two excellent guides to the economic data:
• How US unemployment has changed over time
• US unemployment mapped state by state
Before Obama starts speaking at 7pm ET we'll be covering the build-up, the speech itself and the reaction, including a threatened response by Republican presidential contender Michele Bachmann. And of course you can leave your comments below.
Michelle Obama greets Kelcie Fisher, a senior at Open High in Richmond, Virginia. Photograph: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Guess who's coming to the big speech tonight? There are duelling parties of guests invited by the White House and Republicans to sit in the visitors gallery:
The guests who will be seated with First Lady Michelle Obama all point to elements of the president's plan he will discuss tonight, a set of proposals he's calling the "American Jobs Act." Some of them also just so happen to hail from swing states that the White House wouldn't mind garnering some favorable coverage in.
They include an Iowa business executive who took part in Obama's recent Rural Economic Forum, a small business owner in Charlotte, North Carolina, a Navy veteran from Minnesota looking to re-enter the private sector workforce, and a Cleveland school teacher who could be laid off because of local budget cuts.
The White House has just released a set of advance quotes from Obama's speech:
The people of this country work hard to meet their responsibilities. The question tonight is whether we'll meet ours. The question is whether, in the face of an ongoing national crisis, we can stop the political circus and actually do something to help the economy; whether we can restore some of the fairness and security that has defined this nation since our beginning.
Those of us here tonight cannot solve all of our nation's woes. Ultimately, our recovery will be driven not by Washington, but by our businesses and our workers. But we can help. We can make a difference. There are steps we can take right now to improve people's lives.
I am sending this Congress a plan that you should pass right away. It's called the American Jobs Act. There should be nothing controversial about this piece of legislation. Everything in here is the kind of proposal that's been supported by both Democrats and Republicans – including many who sit here tonight. And everything in this bill will be paid for. Everything.
The purpose of the American Jobs Act is simple: to put more people back to work and more money in the pockets of those who are working. It will create more jobs for construction workers, more jobs for teachers, more jobs for veterans, and more jobs for the long-term unemployed. It will provide a tax break for companies who hire new workers, and it will cut payroll taxes in half for every working American and every small business. It will provide a jolt to an economy that has stalled, and give companies confidence that if they invest and hire, there will be customers for their products and services. You should pass this jobs plan right away.
If you want to follow the White House's live video of tonight's event, then I have the feed for you right here.
On Fox News, the cynics are out in force. "This is the first election kick-off speech given by a president in the houses of Congress," says Charles Krauthammer.
Like Charles, I'm shocked – shocked! – to hear that politics is going on in the halls of Congress.
There's some pro forma stuff that has to be got through, and that's being done right now. Oh look, it's the dean of the diplomatic corps! That sort of thing.
Michelle Obama arrives for President Barack Obama's address on Capitol Hill in Washington. Photograph: Larry Downing/REUTERS
Not long to go. There's Michelle Obama being applauded. She's in magenta. Or possible fuchsia. The dress I mean.
We've just added a live video of this event to this blog, so refresh the page and you'll see it.
Here we go: "Mr Speaker, the President of the United States," is the call by Sergeant-at-Arms Bill Livingood, and here Obama is, shaking hands and looking jolly.
"This looks exactly like a State of the Union address," sniffs Shepherd Smith, the only Fox News presenter worth a pitcher of spit. Or just a pitcher.
Strangely, the mood actually seems more pleasant in atmosphere than in the last State of the Union, back in January.
It's going to be 43 minutes long, according to Shep.
President Barack Obama delivers a speech to a joint session of Congress at the Capitol in Washington. Photograph: Charles Dharapak/AP
Here's Obama, saying that Americans "know that Washington has not always put their interests first":
The people of this country work hard to meet their responsibilities. The question tonight is, whether we will meet ours. The question is whether in the face of an on-going national crisis, we can stop the circus and actually do something to save the economy.
Now Obama is explaining his American Jobs Act, stressing that every proposal in it has been supported by politicians on both sides:
It will provide a jolt to the American economy ... you should pass this jobs plan right away.
At that moment a huge crash of thunder and lightning is heard over NW Washington. Maybe a good sign?
"Fifty House Republicans" have proposed similar payroll tax cuts, says Obama. "You should pass this bill now," he repeats, and then gets tougher:
Building a world class transportation system was part of what made us a economic superpower. And now you're going to sit back and watch China build newer airports and faster railroads, at a time when millions of unemployed construction workers could build them right here in America?
MSNBC's Chuck Todd tweets: "I've already lost count of the number of times POTUS has said "pass this jobs bill."
Since then we've had several more "pass this jobs bills". Yep, Chuck's right. If you had "pass this jobs bill" in the Presidential Speech drinking game, you're already passed out by now.
I think there's a subtle message in this speech, and that is that passing this jobs bill is a high priority for the White House.
By Obama's standards, this is a very direct, straight-forward speech by Obama. No fancy turns of phrase so far. For example:
This isn't political grandstanding. This isn't class warfare. This is simple math. These are real choices that we have to make.
RedState's Erick Erickson isn't happy, via Twitter: "Instead of yelling 'you lie' at him, I wish they'd loudly laugh at this farce. This speech is a rehashed joke."
Now here's the politics: Obama goes on a riff "I reject the idea" that Americans are forced to choose between jobs and regulations. And he doesn't want America to be in a race for the bottom, he wants it to be in a race for the top, unsurprisingly.
Now Obama's giving a history lesson of moments when America faced tough times yet the government still managed to do important work. Such as the time Abraham Lincoln invented the internet* even though the Civil War was still going on.
* Not actually true. It was Al Gore.
"The next election is 14 months away," Obama reminds Congress. Several members of Congress instantly jump to their feet and rush to a fundraiser.
Swift peroration about how America is and always will be number one, along with the obligatory JFK reference, and Obama has done, with one last exhortation to pass that jobs bill.
OK, unless you want to see Kate Thornton on ITV2 backstage (and if that means nothing to you, then you don't), then please refresh your browser and the live video feed will disappear.
Reaction! Fox News guest reluctantly admits that maybe some of the measures suggested tonight might actually make some slight improvement in the labour market.
And here's some other news: Fox and CNN report that Obama was briefed today on "specific, credible but unconfirmed threat" for the 9/11 anniversary in and around New York City.
This statement comes from Eric Cantor, the Republican majority leader in the House:
There are certainly goals the President outlined that we can work with him on. We should work quickly to pass the areas where we agree.
That's optimistic and a shift in tone from the previous posture of grinding defiance.
Now Fox News is saying the White House warning of a "specific, credible threat" comes from overseas, and is said to involve intelligence of a car bomb in NYC or Washington DC, possibly as revenge for the killing of Osama bin Laden.
The response from Speaker of the House John Boehner is also modestly optimistic.
The earlier reports that Republicans planned to be conciliatory turned out to be accurate.
So why no official Republican response on camera tonight? Well there's a funny tale of possible subterfuge.
You may recall that the Republicans objected to Obama's original plan for this speech to have been last night. So it was moved to tonight – the opening night of the NFL season. Hence Obama's speech was at 7pm.
The White House said the speech would last 42 minutes, plus applause and so on, meaning that the Republican response would risk running into the start of the NFL game. In the end the speech only last 32 minutes, meaning the Republicans had plenty of time for a response as it turns out. Oh well.
We've now posted the full text of Obama's speech here.
Well "American Jobs Act" is now trending on Twitter, which these days is pretty much the same as getting it passed by Congress, so that's a win for Obama.
Although it is still below #nationalkissday on Twitter trends.
And here's the White House's summary of Obama's $447bn proposed jobs package.
So Michele Bachmann didn't get the memo about the new Republican softly, softly approach to Obama's speech.
In her own response on behalf of the swivel-eyed, Bachman will say that every time Obama speaks "his policies have cost the American people jobs and future prosperity":
The president is politically paralysed and philosophically incapable of doing what needs to be done.
Even grimmer news than the US economy is the latest warning of a terror threat:
Officials have received a credible but unconfirmed terror threat on New York or Washington, according to the Associated Press.
The news agency reported a counter-terrorism official as saying that law enforcement officials have been investigating the intelligence since it was received late on Wednesday night.
The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive security information.
According to NBC News, an administration official rated the credibility of the threat as "5 or 6 out of 10".
The Los Angeles Times (yes it's still going) has its take on Obama's speech:
The jobs plan was almost $150 billion larger than administration officials had previously indicated, helping Obama portray the proposal as bold. Economists said a plan of that scope might have a noticeable impact on the economy very soon after enactment.
But the size of the proposal also could create sticker shock in Congress, where even in advance of the address, many GOP lawmakers were wary of spending money to stimulate the economy, while others may simply prefer to wait to take action for what they hope is a Republican president in 2013.
Tom Price, chair of the influential House Republican Policy Committee, is also less impressed by the Obama speech than the official line from the GOP leadership suggests:
If [Obama] is tired of gridlock in Washington, he ought to send the three free trade agreements sitting on his desk to Congress so we can consider them. He ought to ask his Democrat allies in the Senate why they have not passed a budget in well over 800 days and why they have failed to take up the many job-creating proposals already passed by the House.
That's a better reflection of the Republican backbenchers (as they are not called) than the Boehner-Cantor line in public.
MSNBC now reporting that administration officials tell it the terror threat involves three men and a car or truck bomb aimed at DC or NYC, and that the information came from the tribal areas of Pakistan.
By the way, Bachmann's "press conference" has come and gone, no cable stations felt obliged to cover it. She says she was offended by Obama's tone, saying that he "began with an insult" by calling Congress a "circus."
Basically, she was against it.
More news: NYC mayor Michael Bloomberg is holding a press conference at 9.30pm, with police chief and senior FBI officials.
I'm guessing that's not about Obama's jobs plan.
Speech stats: 34 minutes long, 53 breaks for applause, while Obama mentioned "jobs" 37 times and variations on "pass this bill" 14 times, although it seemed like more.
Here's the New York Times's take:
Faced with a stalling economy, a hostile Congress and a disenchanted public, President Obama challenged lawmakers in a blunt address Thursday evening to enact a sweeping package of tax cuts and new spending designed to revive the stagnant job market.
Speaking to a joint session of Congress, Mr. Obama ticked off a list of measures he said would put money in people's pockets, encourage companies to begin hiring again, and jolt an American economy at risk of relapsing into recession. And he all but ordered Congress to pass the legislation.
"You should pass this jobs plan right away," the president declared.
With Republicans already lining up to condemn the plan, Mr. Obama said, "The question is whether, in the face of an ongoing national crisis, we can stop the political circus and actually do something to help the economy."
President Barack Obama addresses a joint session of Congress. Photograph: Kevin Lamarque/REUTERS
Here's a summary of tonight's speech on jobs by Obama:
• Barack Obama unveiled his American Jobs Act, designed to boost employment and costing $447bn. Obama repeatedly urged Congress to "pass this jobs plan right away"
• The bulk of the plan is for $245bn in reduced payroll taxes, designed to make it cheaper for business to hire new staff, as well as spending on building infrastructure and education, including funds to retain teachers and retraining for the long-term unemployed
• Under the act, an average American family would receive a tax cut of $1,500 in 2012
• Economists said the plan, if adopted in full, could support two million new jobs and cut the unemployment rate from 9% down towards 8%
• But the plan contained little to address the crushing burden of America's housing market, and for that reason was rejected as "inadequate" by some economists
• Republican leaders gave a tepid but civil welcome to Obama's speech, without offering specific support, although more conservative Republicans remained staunchly opposed to any new spending
• The new spending and lower revenue would have to be offset by further cuts to the federal budget under the recent debt ceiling deal, to be identified by the congressional "super committee", with Obama pledging to submit a revised set of budget changes
Time to wrap it up for this evening, thanks for reading.
• This article was amended on 27 September 2011 to correct spelling of a reference to "fuschia".