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A politician has no greater strength than the perception he or she will be the winner, and that inevitability is why Mitt Romney is in much stronger position to win the Republican Presidential nomination than his actual standing with GOP voters might indicate.
Our national IBOPE Zogby interactive poll concluded Monday finds Romney about where he has been since July: in second place with 18%. Four different candidates (Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain and now Newt Gingrich) have led the full field over that span.
The other constant in this year’s GOP polling has been the wide lead Romney has held as the candidate Republican voters believe will win the nomination. This week, 60% say Romney will be the nominee, which is about where he has stood with the exception of the end of November, when Romney was still seen as most likely, but with 45%.
That rebound seems quite telling because late November was the nadir of Gingrich’s support. Gingrich seems to be the last plausible alternative that might actually beat Romney. On Nov. 28, Gingrich topped the GOP field with 32%, followed by Cain’s 22% and Romney’s 13%. Now Gingrich has fallen to 26%, followed by Romney’s 18%. (This poll did not include Cain since he suspended his campaign.)
The narrowing between Gingrich and Romney is due to both increased scrutiny of Gingrich and Romney’s far superior organizational and financial strength, both products of the perception from day one that Romney would be the nominee. Technically independent PACs that obviously support Romney have bombarded Gingrich with negative ads and may have cut the legs out from under Gingrich in Iowa, where party faithful will caucus next week. Gingrich was also embarrassed and exposed when he failed to get enough signatures to appear on the ballot in Virginia, where he lives.
Despite these setbacks, our national poll has Gingrich ahead of Romney in a head-to-head pairing, 49%-37%. We also included Paul in a three-way test, and the margin between Gingrich and Romney changed slightly (Gingrich 41%, Romney 32% and Paul 19%.) Both questions offered the option “I would not vote,” and not surprisingly the inclusion of Paul dropped that number from 8% in the Gingrich-Romney head-to-head to just 2%.
As I have said before, Paul’s singularly loyal following can keep him in the GOP race to the finish and make him a third-party candidate who would impact the 2012 election. (We will see if revelations of Paul’s associations with past racist writings may soften his support among his core young voters.)
Right now, Paul’s strength in national polls and in Iowa is not a threat to Romney. Gingrich is his real challenger and the man he must stay ahead of in Iowa and subsequent primaries. Votes for Paul and other candidates are votes denied to Gingrich. That’s why Gingrich is putting the full rhetorical Newt on Paul, saying “I think Ron Paul's views are totally outside the mainstream of virtually every decent American.”
Paul does become a big problem should Romney be the nominee. Romney needs Paul’s voters against Barack Obama, and he should be in mortal fear of Paul running on a third party. Winning over Paul’s supporters (or at least their grudging acceptance) is part of the very large problem Romney has with the GOP base.
Our poll asked which of the GOP candidates “best represents your values.” Only 8% chose Romney, while the leaders are Bachmann 20%, Rick Santorum 17%, Paul 15% and Gingrich 13%. (Santorum cannot be discounted in Iowa and might even last a while. He gained the most in our national poll from Cain’s absence, going from 1% at the end of November to 10% now.)
Romney’s poor showing on values is no surprise. Our late November poll showed 61% of GOP voters believe he lacks core beliefs. As we head into the real voting, Romney is the man with the money, endorsements and expectations. Although he gets no real love from Republican voters, if Romney can convince them of his inevitability, he will likely square off with Obama next year.
