Here's a summary of today's events as the battle for the Republican nomination continues in Iowa:
• Two new polls – from PPP and CNN/Time – showed Ron Paul and Mitt Romney in the top two places in Iowa, and showed a struggle for third between a fading Newt Gingrich and, in the latest CNN poll, rising support for Rick Santorum
• Ron Paul returned to Iowa for a series of events, attracting crowds of voters and considerable media attention thanks to his new status as possible winner of the Iowa caucuses on 3 January
• Mitt Romney and Santorum said they would vote for Ron Paul if he won the Republican nomination – in contrast to Gingrich, who declared on Tuesday that he would not
• Occupy Des Moines protesters were arrested outside the Romney campaign office in Des Moines, as numbers swelled ahead of protests planned for the day of the caucuses
• Bidding to impress Iowa's social conservatives, Rick Perry announced that he had revised his views on forbidding abortion even in cases of rape and incest, later clarifying his remarks to allow an exception where the life of the mother was threatened
• Former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson dropped his Republican presidential bid and announced he would instead seek the nomination of the Libertarian party
We'll back tomorrow with more on the Iowa ground game. Thanks for reading.
The Huffington Post's Sam Stein has done a lot of legwork in tracking down Ron Paul's history of voting against even some of the least contentious motions before Congress.
Dr No: Ron Paul. Photograph: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
The list is long but here is a flavour:
Paul was the only member to vote against a House measure expressing condolences to the families and victims of the February 2010 Chilean earthquake. He was also the only member to vote against a House measure expressing condolences to the victims of the Haiti earthquake. And when the House considered a resolution that would make any organ donor eligible for a Stephanie Tubbs Jones Gift of Life medal, in honor of the late congresswoman, he was, once again, the lone vote in opposition.
"The guy marches to the beat of his own drum," Stein quotes a former Republican aide as saying.
The New York Times has a long interview-profile on Newt Gingrich, which hardly moves the ball down the field. But it's very readable.
The Des Moines Register reports that 10 protesters from the Occupy Des Moines movement were arrested outside Mitt Romney's campaign offices and a Wells Fargo branch office in the city:
The protesters, all part of the Occupy Des Moines movement, demanded that Romney and Wells Fargo release their tax returns and that Romney return money donated to his 2012 presidential campaign from Wells Fargo PAC and Wells Fargo employees.
Being grilled by Wolf Blitzer on CNN, Rick Santorum is as happy as he could be without actually winning the Iowa caucuses.
Askled the "would you, could you vote for Ron Paul?" question, Santorum says yes, he could.
"Would Ron Paul as president send in Navy Seals to kill Bin Laden?" asks Blitzer. "No," says Santorum, looking glum.
Now hang on there. That CNN poll: various people, namely Nathan Wurtzel, think the methodology is off:
Party registration is very fluid in Iowa, and can be changed on the night of the caucuses, meaning that Democrats and Independents can easily get in on the action. Ron Paul – according to the earlier PPP poll – gets support from both indys and disaffected Dems, hence the difference between the two polls.
Taking that into account, what's left is that a big slug of support moved from Gingrich to Santorum.
Brilliant. Yesterday Mitt Romney made a joke out of Newt Gingrich's disorganised political campaign, comparing it to a Lucille Ball skit in a chaotic chocolate factory.
Newt Gingrich dips chocolate in the kitchen of The Chocolate Season in Algona, Iowa. Photograph: Jim Young/Reuters
Now where does Newt find himself today, being photographed, as news comes in that he has gone from being Iowa frontrunner to nowhere-loser? A chocolate factory.
The Des Moines Register reports Gingrich saying:
Governor Romney had a cute line yesterday about my team resembling Lucy and the chocolate factor. I just want to say: Here I am in the chocolate factory.
Are you ready for some Rickmentum? Yes, the new CNN/Time poll rockets Rick Santorum into third place: Romney 25%, Paul 22%, Santorum 16%, Newt 14%, Perry 11%, Bachmann 9%, Huntsman 1%.
"Newt Gingrich has fallen off a cliff!" says Wolf Blitzer. Wishful thinking. But Gingrich has dumped 19 percentage points in the space of a month. Taxi for Mr Gingrich... or maybe he is just "pacing" himself.
The CNN/Time New Hampshire poll: Romney 44%, Ron Paul 17%, Newt Gingrich 16%. The rest in single figures.
A protester drives by Mitt Romney's campaign stop in Clinton, Iowa. Photograph: Chris Carlson/AP
A new Iowa poll coming out from CNN at the top of the hour, said to be spicy. Not sure quite what that means.
No signs of any cable stations, not even C-Span 3, carrying Rick Santorum's crucial Iowa furniture showroom meet and greet, which future historians will look back upon as a key moment. No, they won't.
The Guardian's Ana Marie Cox is back from her Festivus break and laying into the New York Times for its RomneyBot 2000 article today:
I don't want to poke too much fun at the Times for reporting the story – you've got to fill space somehow, and since he's spent over five years running for president, the number of things new to say about Mitt Romney has already long passed zero. We're in negative space as far as information about Mitt goes, where every piece of information passed along about him actually causes us to know less.
My favourite RomneyBot 2000 anecdote comes from a Republican I know. Introduced to Romney for the first time, he mentions that he is a friend of Romney's son, Tagg. Romney's eyes widen: "Tagg – great guy!" as if he was describing a casual golfing partner.
On the "would you, could you vote for Ron Paul?" can of worms that Newt Gingrich ripped open yesterday, Mike O'Brien of MSNBC reports via Twitter:
Take that, Professor Gingrich.
CNN goes into overdrive:
On Sunday, January 1, CNN will kick off the network's "America's Choice 2012" coverage with a prime-time special Countdown to Iowa: Final 48 Hours with Blitzer anchoring live from the Election Center. The two-hour political special will air at 8pm and replay at 11pm. In addition, CNN will launch The Contenders 2012 series on Saturday, December 31 from 2pm to 6pm and Sunday, January 1 from 2pm to 5pm.
So that's three or four days before the actual caucus.
Oh dear, Newt Gingrich, hilarious fraud. Newt famously took a week off for a cruise off the coast of Greece as the GOP presidential campaign got underway. Some people – cynics, probably – said this was a sign he wasn't a serious candidate.
Hands up for Newt! Callista and Newt Gingrich in Mason City, Iowa today. Note Newt pacing himself. Photograph: Jim Young/Reuters
But no. It was all part of Gingrich's cunning plan, he told voters in Iowa today:
We had planned for a long time to stop. We had campaigning very hard and we had planned a long time to stop for 10 days to think. Again, I know this doesn't fit the normal media model of how candidates operate.
Sadly, as the Des Moines Register article points out, the New York Times has pointed out that the Greek cruise occured after Newt had been "campaigning very hard" for exactly one week, when he launched his campaign:
A reporter noted that the trip was taken about a week into his campaign to which Gingrich responded that planning for the campaign had been ongoing since January.
"It wouldn't matter if it was the first week or the first week of July. The fact is, I think you need to pace yourself," Gingrich said.
Ron Paul was on fire at his townhall event just now – sample quote: "Believe me, we are not out of Iraq. That's a dream if you think we are out of Iraq."
GOP presidential candidate Ron Paul answers questions in Iowa. Photograph: Charlie Riedel/AP
Meanwhile, the Paul campaign attempts to take revenge for Newt Gingrich's snide attack yesterday, with the former Speaker saying he wouldn't vote for Ron Paul even if he won the Republican nomination. The Paul team have turned that into a fundraising opportunity with some hard-hitting web ads:
As the only Republican candidate in this field who is both a true, lifelong conservative and also can defeat President Obama next fall, I hope I'll have your support.
After you complete your "We want a conservative, not a counterfeit" Statement of Support, please chip in a contribution to my presidential campaign to help me defeat Barack Obama and Restore America Now!
Another tough ad from the Ron Paul campaign is out today – which picks out Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney as "serial hyprocrites and flip-floppers [who] can't clean up the mess" in Washington.
In case you missed it, yesterday's episode of "Gingrich versus Romney" revolved around Mitt telling Newt that his campaign organisation was more like Lucille Ball's chocolate factory sketch than Pearl Harbor.
Here's the clip of Romney delivering that gag. Anyway, Newt fumed on CNN that Mitt should say that to his face. Asked about it this morning on Fox News, Mitt replies:
I hope the Speaker understands that was humor, and I'm happy to tell my humorous anecdote to him face-to-face and look forward to seeing him.
Donald Trump has been quiet. But he's still babbling away, as Talking Points Memo notes, on his Twitter feed, spreading disinformation.
Naturally, none of this is true. While Obama did issue a Kwanzaa statement – as did President Bush in his day – Obama also did this "Merry Christmas" video. And then there was the whole lighting of the national Christmas tree. (Or, as the Washington Post so poetically put it: "Obama lights National Christmas Tree near White House".)
I like the replies to Trump on Twitter: "All I want for 2012 is to see @realDonaldTrump stop being a @BarackObama twitter troll." And also: "who the fuck cares!"
Update: let us note that Fox News is running "Happy Kwanzaa" station idents today.
That reminds me: stay tuned for details of our exciting "Guess the winner of the Iowa caucuses" competition.
Remember when Michele Bachmann used to rage at Barack Obama's use of a teleprompter? Here's a photo of Bachmann campaigning in Iowa today – and her use of prompt cards while taping even a very brief video.
Photograph: Evan Vucci/AP
According to the Associated Press caption: "Members of Republican presidential candidate, Michele Bachmann, campaign team hold a sign for her to read during a campaign stop at the Nodaway, Wednesday, December 28, 2011, in Greenfield, Iowa."
Photograph: Evan Vucci/AP
Let's look more closely at this paper-o-prompter message: "Hi, it's Michele. I'm in [blank] @ [blank] in [blank] county. I need your support at the Iowa caucus. Please take a minute to watch this video. Thank you and God b[less]." (The blanks are filled in by names on the notebook held up higher by the aide in the photo – in this case "Greenfield," "Nodaway Diner" and "Adair County".)
So Michele Bachmann needs to be reminded what her own first name is? Hear that, people of [blank] in [blank] county? Get out there and vote for [Ron Paul].
Reader Steve from London, England, emails regarding Rick Santorum's campaign visit to USA Furniture and Bedding in Dubuque today:
Is anyone going to cover this major Rick Santorum event live on TV? It's what rolling news was invented for!
No Steve, rolling news was invented for car chases in California or Texas. But, ah, maybe C-Span will gives the Santorum some airtime. Or maybe he will trip over something and get some cable coverage.
USA Furniture and Bedding's motto is: "Where prices are born and raised elsewhere." Eh?
Update: It appears CNN might live stream what it calls "Santorum's furniture stop". Gonna have to watch that.
GOP presidential candidate Rick Perry campaigning in Urbandale today. Photograph: John Gress/Reuters
And just in time for the Iowa caucuses, Rick Perry decides he is opposed to abortion with no exceptions even in the traditional incest, life of the mother cases:
Rick Perry admitted to Iowa voters this evening that his views on abortion have undergone a "transformation," shifting from a stance that allowed for abortion in cases of rape, incest and risk to a mother's life, to one that opposes abortion in all forms.
Obviously people can change their mind. But when one changes his mind on such an issue in such close proximity to a crucial election? Mmm.
The New York Times's resident statoblogger Nate Silver has Thoughts after reading the PPP tea leaves, notably that Ron Paul and Mitt Romney have probably hit their ceiling of support, and the real action may be among the three remaining non-Gingrich candidates:
There are extremely strong incentives for supporters of Mr Bachmann, Mr Santorum and Mr Perry to behave tactically, throwing their weight behind whichever one appears to have the best chance of finishing in the top two. What that means is that if any of these candidates appear to have any momentum at all during the final week of the campaign, their support could grow quite quickly as other voters jump on the bandwagon.
It could happen that way. If two of the three candidates of the Perry, Santorum, Bachmann trio ship half their support to one candidate, that only leaves – for example – Bachmann with 24%, enough for a third place or even a second. Hmm, a Ron Paul, Michele Bachmann, Mitt Romney finish – that would stump everyone until it was written off as Iowa craziness.
After the Christmas drought, PPP – one of the better pollsters out there – has new numbers out of Iowa. And they show Ron Paul up, Newt Gingrich down and Mitt Romney rolling along.
Newt Gingrich (left) and Callista Gingrich at the National Farm Toy Museum in Iowa. Photograph: Charles Dharapak/AP
The actual numbers are: Ron Paul 24%, Mitt Romney 20%, Newt Gingrich 13%, Michele Bachmann 11%, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum at 10%, and Jon Huntsman at 4%. PPP comments:
Paul's strength in Iowa continues to depend on a coalition of voters that's pretty unusual for a Republican in the state. Romney leads 22-20 with those who are actually Republicans, while Paul has a 39-12 advantage with the 24% who are either independents or Democrats. GOP caucus voters tend to skew old, and Romney has a 34-12 advantage with seniors. But Paul's candidacy looks like it's going to attract an unusual number of younger voters to the caucus this year, and with those under 45 he has a 35-11 advantage on Romney. The independent/young voter combo worked for Barack Obama in securing an unexpectedly large victory on the Democratic side in 2008 and it may be Paul's winning equation in 2012.
The numbers are looking really grim for Gingrich: his unfavourability numbers have ballooned as the campaign have revealed the seedier sides of his career and life. Frankly, it's all gone pear-shaped for Gingrich and his bubble has popped. That's probably it for him, since his resources are too thin to weather this and time has almost run out.
PPP is right on the money here:
Newt Gingrich just keeps on sliding. He's gone from 27% to 22% to 14% to 13% over the course of our four Iowa tracking polls. His favorability numbers are pretty abysmal now at 37/54 and only 32% of likely voters think that he has strong principles to 45% who believe he does not. Once the darling of Tea Party voters in the state, he's now slipped to third with that group behind Bachmann and Paul. There's not much reason to think Gingrich can return to his former strong standing in the state in the final week.
Fourth place for Gingrich? Or worse? I don't see why not.
So where in Iowa are the candidates pressing the flesh and frightening pizza diners today? Here's where:
GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney in Muscatine, Iowa, today. Photograph: Brian Snyder/Reuters
• Mitt Romney: on an all-day bus tour with events in Muscatine, Clinton and North Liberty. North Liberty? Fantastic name:
The City of North Liberty is a thriving community just north of Coralville and Iowa City and south of Cedar Rapids. The town is located in the heart of Johnson County. According to special census taken in 2004, the population was 7,224 residents. The 2010 census marks North Liberty as one of the fastest growing cities in Iowa with over 13,000 residents!
• Newt Gingrich: also touring Iowa, with notable stops at The Chocolate Season in Algona, and the inevitable stop at a Pizza Ranch in Le Mars.
• Rick Perry is also on a bus tour, with stops in Urbandale, Indianola, Pella and Oskaloosa.
• Ron Paul is also in Iowa, and is holding a town hall meeting at the Iowa Speedway Media Centre, which sounds fun.
• Michele Bachmann deserves a full entry of her own, on her marathon yet fruitless tour of Iowa's 99 counties and all of its Pizza Ranch outlets. All times are CT:
9am: Holds a meet and greet event. Nodaway Diner, 502, SW Kent Street, Greenfield
10am: Holds a meet and greet event. Adams Street Expresso, 213 West Adams Street, Creston (Rick Perry was there yesterday.)
11am: Holds a meet and greet event. Kay's Kafe, 608 Davis Avenue, Corning
Noon: Holds a meet and greet event. Junction Cafe, 2025 Highway 2, Bedford
1pm: Makes a Mount Ayr Tour stop. Peggy Sue's Good Eats, 103 West Monroe Street, Mount Ayr
2pm: Holds a meet and greet event. Dinky Diner, 104 NE 4th Street, Decatur
3pm: Holds a meet and greet event. Family Table Restaurant, 1610 Jeffreys Drive, Osceola
4.10pm: Makes an Indianola Tour stop. Pizza Ranch, 1709 N. Jefferson Way, Indianola
5.15pm: Holds a meet and greet event. The Northside Cafe, 61 West Jefferson Street, Winterset
6:30pm: Holds a meet and greet event. Pizza Ranch, 448 SE University Avenue, Waukee
8.15pm: Holds a meet and greet event. Pizza Ranch, 1703 South Story Street, Boone
• Rick Santorum: Day-long drinking binge followed by fundraising drive for Planned Parenthood. Not really. Actually, the highlight of his day is a 2.30pm visit to USA Furniture and Bedding in Dubuque.
• Jon Huntsman: is preparing for his last place in the Iowa caucuses by campaigning in New Hampshire today.
A round-up of notable links for today:
• Romney and Bush: Too close for conservative comfort – Manchester Union-Leader
Not that Bush, the other one. For whatever reason, the Manchester Union-Leader newspaper in New Hampshire really loathes Mitt Romney. And this editorial continues that thread of fury.
• The Retooled, Loose Romney, Guessing Voters' Age and Ethnicity – New York Times
Never mind the dull headline, this is the standard American media "what Romney is like in the flesh" piece, complete with anecdotes of his marginally odd interactions with voters.
• Romney slams Gingrich on 'activist judges' stance – Boston Globe
Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney today criticized a proposal by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich to rein in the judiciary. But Romney generally toned down his criticism of Gingrich, after the two traded barbs last week.
• 'Occupy' protesters make case for change – Des Moines Register
Protesters are hopeful that the media spotlight on Iowa leading up to next week's caucuses will also provide an opportunity to draw attention to the movement's concerns.
the GOP presidential candidates are all over Iowa like a rash. And the cure is the Iowa caucuses next Tuesday.
A new poll shows Ron Paul in the lead, while Newt Gingrich's support is sinking like a stone. The polls are now starting to come thick and fast, and there will be more data later today.
Elsewhere, the Newt Gingrich versus Mitt Romney guerilla war continued with short burst of firing. After lecturing the other candidates about avoiding negative attacks and pledging to take the high road, Gingrich himself seems to have swallowed the red pill, laying into Paul and Romney as his poll ratings go south.
Is Romney unstoppable for the GOP nomination? It is starting to look that way as previously uncommitted Republicans grudgingly close ranks.
Follow all today's action here live – and wait to hear about an exciting competition to forecast the Iowa cacuses and win prizes! Comedy prizes but prizes none the less – including a rare set of Guardian pencils.