It has been the most chaotic and indecisive race in recent US political history, with candidates rising and collapsing at the alarming rate of about one a month. At stake is the Republican nomination to take on Barack Obama for the White House on 6 November – an election many in the party believe should be theirs for the taking.
There is only one problem: the Republicans are struggling to find anyone to inspire them or unite behind, and now it is too late for any new saviour to ride to the rescue. Tuesday is crunch time: the Iowa caucuses are the first contest in a Republican battle that could potentially be fought, state by state, all the way to the summer.
"A bunch of cranks," says Bob Wessel, an 87-year-old second world war veteran who can remember voting for Eisenhower, of the current candidates campaigning in Des Moines. "If this is all the Republicans have got, I will vote for Obama."
Dissatisfaction with the field is a recurring theme on the campaign trail in Iowa. Those turning out for campaign meetings often say they are undecided and make unfavourable comparisons with the calibre of Republicans who canvassed for their support in the past.
An estimated 100,000-plus Republicans will gather in community centres, schools and other meeting places on Tuesday evening to vote. It is the culmination of weeks – and, in some cases, months – of campaigning; a mind-numbing round of meet-and-greets in pizza parlours, shopping malls and sports bars. Rick Santorum, who has spent more time on the ground than any of the pack, has conducted 363 town hall meetings.
Reflecting the unsettled nature of the race, there have been six frontrunners since August, beginning with Tea Party favourite Michele Bachmann. She was followed by Texas governor Rick Perry, who has fought one of the most inept campaigns ever, even in the admission of his own staff. Herman Cain was next up, before being forced to suspend his campaign amid a welter of sexual harassment allegations. Then Ron Paul, from the fringes of the Republican party, and, in the last fortnight, Mitt Romney, who is still most likely to win the nomination.
In the latest twist, Rick Santorum, in single digits for the whole of 2011, is making a late surge propelled by endorsements of Christian evangelical leaders.
Seven have entered this brutal elimination contest but after Iowa the field may be down to six. Bachmann, at the bottom of the polls and attracting sparse crowds, is the likeliest to drop out, though she insists she plans to continue campaigning. Next week's New Hampshire primary could prompt the withdrawal of Jon Huntsman – the only candidate not to have been a frontrunner, or even enjoyed a surge.
The Des Moines Register poll, published on Saturday night and eagerly awaited by the campaigns because of its past reliability, predicts a three-horse race going into the final stretch. Romney polled top with 24%, followed by Paul on 22%, Santorum on 15%, Gingrich on 12%, Perry on 11% and Bachmann on 7%. Huntsman is not competing in Iowa, judging that he has little chance in the socially conservative state where Christian evangelicals make up an estimated 50% of caucus-goers, and is waiting instead in New Hampshire.
The surprise in the Register poll is the Santorum surge recorded over the last two days, showing Romney holding on at 24% but with Santorum leapfrogging Paul to take second place on 21%, leaving Paul in third on 18%. The poll findings reinforced the volatility of the race. J Ann Selzer, president of the company that carried out the polling in six of the last seven caucuses, said she had never before seen such a surge. "People who love politics love this kind of surprise battle, where there is a path to victory for a number of candidates," she said.
Selzer and political journalists are enjoying the disorderly nature of the race more than a Republican party desperate to get Obama out of the White House. The party controls the House of Representatives, but is hoping to add both the White House and the Senate in November to begin rolling-back healthcare reform, welfare benefits and the other "socialist" policies of the Obama administration.
The Democrats, housed in Obama's re-election headquarters in Chicago, are happily watching the fractured Republican race. They will hope it drags out month after month, state by state, leaving the candidates consumed by their own campaigns and with less time to focus on fundraising for the general election.
David Axelrod, the mastermind of Obama's 2008 victory, believes Romney will emerge triumphant and is putting together a formidable, well-funded machine he thinks is capable of beating him – especially if the tentative signs of economic recovery prove reliable.
Another of Obama's team, Jim Messina, the campaign manager, sent out a video last week to supporters setting out five possible combinations of states that would provide a pathway to victory. Iowa is listed as one of them and the Obama team is already putting its organisation in place.
Jordan Oster, 25, one of the young volunteers who formed the backbone of Obama's 2008 victory in Iowa and plans to work for him again, said the president had eight offices in the state – more than all the Republican candidates combined.
Obama won Iowa easily last time round, taking 54% of the vote to John McCain's 44%. But current polling in Iowa – his approval ratings are hovering in the mid-40s – shows why, in spite of the riven Republican field, his re-election is in doubt.
Wilbur Hutchens, 74, who voted for Obama in 2008, is disillusioned over the state of the economy, high unemployment and healthcare reform. "Why should I be expected to pay for other people?" he said.
Hutchens was at the Legends American Grill in Marshalltown, attending a campaign event for Bachmann, but has not yet decided who to support. "I will vote Republican regardless of who gets the nomination," he said.
Hutchens is considering voting for Romney on Tuesday night on the grounds that he stands the best chance of beating Obama. "I will decide on electability, on who will beat Obama. That is a major consideration for me," he said.
Romney is a better campaigner than he was in 2008 and could soak up anti-Obama votes. He would also have huge financial backing that was not available to any of the candidates in 2008 thanks to a supreme court ruling that has effectively lifted restrictions on political donations.
Groups such as Restore Our Future, packed with former Romney campaign staff and business associates, have spent millions demolishing Newt Gingrich, one of his rivals in Iowa. Much more resources will be available to take down Obama, supplied not only by Restore our Future but Karl Rove's American Crossroads and the vast riches of the Koch brothers.
Romney's big problem is the reluctance of the party to warm to him. His poll ratings have been stuck at around 24-25%. Although rightwing by the standards of past Republican presidents, he is viewed by the present generation of Republicans as too moderate, too much of an opportunist, and is particularly disliked by the Tea Party movements. Christian evangelicals are suspicious of his Mormonism. But their intense dislike of him may be outweighed by their even greater dislike of Obama.
Joel Jollymore, 37, a Tea Party member attending a Santorum campaign stop at the Buffalo Wild Wings grill in Ames, supported Cain and has now switched to Santorum. "Mitt Romney is not on my radar," he said, adding that if Romney wins the nomination, he will campaign for him. "There is a lot of 'anyone but Obama' at this point," Jollymore said.
