Syria, Egypt and Middle East unrest - Wednesday 4 January

• Arab League observers witness sniper fire in Hama
• Muslim Brotherhood could win outright majority in Egypt
• Tensions build between Iran and the US

• Read the latest summary
Arab League monitors
Members of the Arab League mission to Syria on a visit to Deraa. Photograph: Sana/Reuters
Live blog: recap

5.48pm: Here is a summary of the day's main developments:

Syria

The Obama administration has hinted that it is prepared to consider tougher measures against Syria if the Arab League mission continues to fail. "We have made clear that if the Arab League initiative is not implemented, the international community will have to consider new measures to compel a halt to the regime's violence against its own citizens," spokesman Jay Carney said. Syria responded by accusing the US of "gross interference" in the work of the Arab League.

Thirteen people have been killed so far in Syria today amid continuing frustration at the Arab League's failure to stop the violence, according to activists. Ten of today's victims died in Homs where league monitors were due to inspect today, the Local Co-ordination Committees said. The casualty figures cannot be independently verified. An Arab League meeting on the future of the mission has been postponed until Sunday.

Iran has demanded the release of seven Iranians who it claims were kidnapped by an armed group in Syria. An unknown anti-Shia group has claimed responsibility, according to AFP.

Activists claim sniper fire from government buildings prevented Arab League observers from visiting a restive neighbourhood in Hama. Residents tried to persuade the observers to visit the Hamidiya area but they refused to enter on safety grounds, according to opposition activists.

Egypt

People have been voting on the second day of the third and final phase of elections for Egypt's lower house, the people's assembly, with the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice party on course for an outright majority, according to some analysts. Aswat Masriya said turnout was low in the morning but increased slightly in the afternoon. The Brotherhood said turnout on Tuesday, the first day of phase three, was 35%. In the first and second phases (each over two days) the turnout was 52% and 67% respectively.

The Egyptian justice minister has reportedly requested information on 73 registered civil society organisations as part of the attorney general's investigations into the foreign funding of civil society organisations despite an assurance given to the US that it would make it easier for NGOs to operate in the country. After raids on 10 NGOs on Thursday, including US government-funded groups, the head of the armed forces, Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, assured US defence secretary Leon Panetta that the raids would stop and the operating environment would be made less hostile.

The ousted dictator, Hosni Mubarak, his security chief and six top police officers authorised the use of live ammunition and a shoot-to-kill policy against peaceful protesters, a court heard today. Chief prosecutor Mustafa Suleiman said the defendants were the "actual instigators" of the killing of more than 800 protesters during last year's popular uprising that brought down the Mubarak regime. The trial continues. Meanwhile the April 6 Youth Movement said four of its members were beaten by police after being arrested for putting up posters calling for a demonstration on 25 January, the first anniversary of the uprising against Mubarak. One of the protesters was later released while the others were remanded in custody.

Libya

The chairman of the National Transitional Council, Mustafa Abdel Jalil, has warned that Libya risks sliding into civil war unless it brings rival militias under control. Jalil was speaking in response to a gun battle between militias in one of Tripoli's busiest streets which killed four fighters. "If there's no security, there will be no law, no development and no elections," he said. "People are taking the law into their own hands."

Bahrain

Activists said that Bahraini riot police fired rubber bullets and teargas at peaceful protesters in Sitra. They were demonstrating over the death of a 15-year-old boy, Sayed Hashim Sayed Saeed, who died last week after he was shot in the face with a teargas cannister in Sitra, according to the Bahrain Centre for Human Rights. Protesters at today's demonstration held up a banner condemning Barack Obama because of the appointment of the controversial former Miami police chief John Timoney to help reform Bahrain's police force.

The Bahraini government has increased its crackdown on pro-democracy campaigners despite a pledge to usher in reform, according to Middle East analysts and members of the International Crisis Group. Toby Jones and Ala'a Shehabi write in Foreign Policy magazine that the government "has ignored calls for an end to its assault on pro-democracy forces, and in the last few weeks has actually intensified its crackdown. Security forces have once again laid siege to the country's many poor villages, home to most of its Shia majority as well as the country's pro-democracy movement."

Yemen

President Ali Abdullah Saleh will not travel to the United States, a senior aide said, reversing a pledge by the leader who has withstood nearly a year of protests and military challenges from rivals seeking to topple him. Saleh announced he would visit the United States last month, hours after forces loyal to him killed protesters demanding he face trial for killings during an uprising aimed at ending his 33-year rule. Abdu al-Janadi, a senior figure in Saleh's political party and Yemen's deputy information minister, told reporters members of Saleh's party asked him to remain and help ensure that the deputy to whom Saleh has formally transferred power succeeds him in an election set for February.

5.29pm: Syria's state news agency, Sana, reports a pro-Assad demonstration in Sabaa Bahrat Square in Damascus today. TV footage has been uploaded onto YouTube.

Sana says the demonstration was "in support of the comprehensive reform programme and the independent national decision, and in rejection of foreign interference attempts in Syria's internal affairs".

4.43pm: In an interview with CNN, the leader of the Free Syrian Army has reiterated his warning that the group is planning to escalate attacks against the Assad regime.

In an interview with Reuters on Tuesday, Colonel Riad al-Assad said that if no progress came out of the visit by Arab League monitors, the FSA would take "a decision which will surprise the regime and the whole world". He seems to have lost patience with the observers already, telling CNN:

We don't believe in the Arab League mission in Syria. I think they are covering the regime and blocking any international intervention to help the Syrian people ...

We will keep fighting until we take the regime down. And this week, the world will see huge operations all over the country and against all the regime's vital interests and army locations ...

We are preparing for big operations and have no faith in Arab League monitors or their useless mission.

Year in review: Mubarak attends court

3.48pm: Hosni Mubarak, his security chief and six top police officers authorised the use of live ammunition and a shoot-to-kill policy against peaceful protesters, a court heard today (via AP).

Chief prosecutor Mustafa Suleiman said the defendants were the "actual instigators" of the killing of more than 800 protesters during last year's popular uprising that brought down the Mubarak regime.

Sueliman also complained that the interior minister and the country's intelligence agency had refused to help the prosecution in its inquiries.

He said the decision to use live ammunition was taken on 27 January last year, just before the "Friday of rage", the most violent day of the 18-day uprising that forced Mubarak to step down on 11 February.

The prosecution showed video of the violence on 28 January taken by TV stations. They showed police officers loading up their weapons with live ammunition and police and fire engine trucks chasing protesters and running them over. One video showed a police officer perched on top of a police car and killing a protester with a gunshot to the head.

Suleiman said:

The defendants before you in the cage are the actual instigators and are the ones who gave police officers the order to shoot ...The protesters were peaceful, and it was the police that started firing on them.

The prosecutor said he also had evidence that the regime used thugs against the protesters.

Mubarak and his seven co-defendants are facing charges of complicity in the killings and could face the death penalty if convicted.

3.24pm: Egypt's influential April 6 Youth Movement has accused police officers of torturing four of its members who were arrested in Cairo on Tuesday for putting up posters urging people to demonstrate on 25 January, the first anniversary of the revolution that ousted Hosni Mubarak.

Al-Masry al-Youm reports:

The activists were detained while hanging up posters that compared heroic images of soldiers after the 1973 war with Israel with pictures of troops beating women in Cairo during protests last month, according to Amr Ezz, an April 6 movement organiser.

A statement by the group said activists Sherif Mohamed, Mahmoud Zakariya, Mahmoud Hossam and Hassan Hafez were harshly beaten and insulted by the police officers who the group said also cursed last January's uprising.
The statement added that the officers compelled the detainees to sign fabricated testimonies before referring them to prosecutors, who charged them with planning a coup and disturbing public order.

3.02pm: The Syrian opposition is in "disarray" after a pact between the two main groups fell apart, according to Middle East Online.

Last week the mainly exiled Syrian National Council agreed to a draft deal with the National Coordination Committee, whose supporters are mainly based inside Syria.

The agreement, which appears to have been vetoed by the SNC membership, involved rejecting any foreign intervention in Syria.

The Middle East Institute quoted an SNC Facebook posting saying that the deal "conflicts with the SNC's political programme and with the demands of the Syrian revolution."

The link on the SNC Facebook page was not available at the time of writing.

The Arabist notes that the SNC has been sending out mixed messages on the subject of foreign intervention in Syria.

Despite the unity agreement, one of the Council's spokesmen/leaders, Samir Nashar, told the Washington Times that "the majority of SNC leaders agree with international military intervention as early as possible" even though "they might not be brave enough to express it openly." Nashar's statements (at least those made to the Washington Times) are expressly targeted at garnering US support: he told the paper that intervention would present a "historic opportunity" for the U.S. in the region, and that most Syrians would welcome a replay of Nato's 2011 Libyan engagement. It is not clear if Nashar's statements have been approved by the rest of the Council.

2.34pm: Video today from the southern town of Daeel provides a detailed view of a visit by Arab League monitors.

At the start of the clip a boy tells the observers that his father has been shot, according to a translation by our colleague Mona Mahmood.

"Where's your father?" he is asked. "He's been shot," the boy replies. "Who by?" he is asked. "The security forces," he tells the men in orange bibs.

Later the team of observers t hears from a woman who said her house had been looted. Another woman tells the observers that her 16-year-old son was arrested in November.

The observers are shown recording the details in their notebooks. They are interrupted by a man who claimed that army destroyed his house.

Towards the end of the clip the observers are taken to a house with bullet holes in the wall. "After you leave they will come for us," they are told by one resident.

At the end an older woman approaches the team pleading for help. "We are living in terror. It's a horrible situation. You have to help us," she says.

2.09pm: US assistant secretary of state Jeffrey Feltman has been sent to Cairo for talks with the Arab League about the future of its monitoring mission to Syria.

Announcing the move state department spokeswoman Victorian Nuland accused the Syrian authorities of blocking access to Arab League monitors in some areas.

She said:

They have been blocked in places. It's a question of whether their numbers are sufficient, whether they've been – had all of their demands and requirements met, including their demands to see some of these political prisoners, which we also understand have been denied. So again, we are not going to pass judgment on the Arab League mission in advance of the Arab League itself meeting and taking stock. We would simply note that the Assad regime is far from meeting the standards that it agreed to in these other categories, and that the violence continues. And most of the violence is at the hands of the regime.


Her comments the prompted Syria to accuse the US of interference.

"The US... statements are a gross interference in the work of the Arab League, and an unjustified attempt to internationalise" the issue of Syria, foreign ministry spokesman Jihad Makdesi said according to Lebanon's Daily Star.

Rick Santorum

1.58pm: After his near-victory in the Iowa caucus last night, Rick Santorum (pictured) is suddenly looking like a contender in the race for the Republican nomination. Which means we should probably pay some attention to what he says - particularly on Iran, writes Lizzie Davies.

Ever a critic of "Islamic fascist" regimes – as he calls them – the 53-year-old former Senator recently yanked his hawkish rhetoric up a gear, declaring that, as president, he would bomb Iran's nuclear sites if the authorities did not open them up to inspections. He told the TV programme Meet the Press that he had a five-point plan, which began with the funding of the pro-democracy movement and went on to covert activity in the country to hinder the nuclear programme and ends in airstrikes.

I would be very direct that we would in fact and openly talk about this [covert activity in Iran]. Why? Because I want to make sure that Iran knows that when I say that Iran is not getting a nuclear weapon that we will actually effectuate policies that make that happen. This president has not done that. He has opposed tough sanctions on Iran, on their oil programme. Why? Because he's concerned about the economy and his re-election instead of the long-term national security interests of this country ...

I would say to every foreign scientist that's going into Iran to help them with their programme: you'll be treated as a foreign combatant like an al-Qaida member. And then finally I would be working openly with the state of Israel and I would be saying to Iran: either you open up those facilities, you begin to dismantle them and make them available to inspectors, or we will degrade those facilities through air strikes, and make it very public that we are doing that...Iran will not get a nuclear weapon under my watch.

Obama's preference for diplomacy risked making the US look like a "paper tiger", he added.

1.37pm: At the trial of Hosni Mubarak continues, some people who claim the ousted dictator is responsible for the death of their loved ones are selling flip flops with pictures of him and some of his cronies, including former interior minister Habib El-Adly. Here is a picture.

They are being sold for approximately £0.21 in UK currency.

1.27pm: A protest is being held in Sitra, in Bahrain, over the death of a 15-year-old boy, Sayed Hashim Sayed Saeed, who died last week after he was shot in the face with a teargas cannister, according to activists. The protesters are displaying an uncompromising message to Barack Obama, referring to the appointment of the controversial former Miami police chief John Timoney by the Bahraini government.

Bahrain protesters hold Obama and Timoney banner Picture via Said Yousif on Twitter

Timoney, along with the former Metropolitan police assistant commissioner John Yates, who resigned in the wake of the phone-hacking scandal, was appointed to oversee reform of the Bahraini police force after reports of human rights abuses. But Timoney was himself accused of having used brutal methods to suppress protest in Miami, in his previous role.

Live blog: recap

1.01pm: Here is a summary of the main developments so far today:

Syria

The Obama administration has hinted that it is prepared to consider tougher measures against Syria if the Arab League mission continues to fail.  "We have made clear that if the Arab League initiative is not implemented, the international community will have to consider new measures to compel a halt to the regime's violence against its own citizens," spokesman Jay Carney said.

Ten people have been killed so far in Syria today amid continuing frustration at the Arab League's failure to stop the violence. Seven of today's victims died in Homs where league monitors were due to inspect today. An Arab League meeting on the future of the mission has been postponed until Sunday.

Iran has demanded the release of seven Iranians who it claims were kidnapped by an armed group in Syria. An unknown anti-Shia group has claimed responsibility, according to AFP. 

Activists claim sniper fire from government buildings prevented Arab League observers from visiting a restive neighbourhood in Hama. Residents tried to persuade the observers to visit the Hamidiya area but they refused to enter on safety grounds, according to opposition activists.

Egypt

• Voters are going to the polls on the second day of the third and final phase of elections for Egypt's lower house, the people's assembly, with the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice party on course for an outright majority, according to some analysts. The Brotherhood said turnout on Tuesday, the first day of phase three, was 35%. In the first and second phases (each over two days) the turnout was 52% and 67% respectively.

• With Islamists set to dominate the parliament, both Israel and the US are reaching out to the Muslim Brotherhood with Israel also keen to engage wioth Salafist parties, according to reports. On Monday, the deputy head of the Muslim Brotherhood, Rashad Bayoumi, was quoted as saying that it would not recognise Israel and would hold a referendum on the Egypt-Israel peace treaty.

The Egyptian justice minister has reportedly requested information on 73 registered civil society organisations as part of the attorney general's investigations into the foreign funding of civil society organisations despite an assurance given to the US that it would make it easier for NGOs to operate in the country. After raids on 10 NGOs on Thursday, including US government-funded groups, the head of the armed forces, Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, assured US defence secretary Leon Panetta that the raids would stop and the operating environment would be made less hostile.

Libya

The chairman of the National Transitional Council, Mustafa Abdel Jalil, has warned that Libya risks sliding into civil war unless it brings rival militias under control. Jalil was speaking in response to a gun battle between militias in one of Tripoli's busiest streets which killed four fighters. "If there's no security, there will be no law, no development and no elections," he said. "People are taking the law into their own hands."

Bahrain

• The Bahraini government has increased its crackdown on pro-democracy campaigners despite a pledge to usher in reform, according to Middle East analysts and members of the International Crisis Group. Toby Jones and Ala'a Shehabi write in Foreign Policy magazine that the government "has ignored calls for an end to its assault on pro-democracy forces, and in the last few weeks has actually intensified its crackdown. Security forces have once again laid siege to the country's many poor villages, home to most of its Shia majority as well as the country's pro-democracy movement."

12.29pm: Israel and the US are both reaching out to the Islamist parties in Egypt that are set to dominate the country's first freely elected parliament, according to two separate news reports.

Israel's Foreign Ministry has instructed the Israeli ambassador in Cairo Jacob Amity to start talks with Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood and Salafi parties, the Ma'an news agency reports, citing Israeli Hebrew daily Maariv:

According to Maariv, Israel's former ambassador to Egypt Yitzhad Levanon suggested establishing relations with the Islamist movements after the overthrow of President Hosni Mubarak in January, but the foreign ministry rejected the initiative.

But the ministry reconsidered in light of the parties' strong showing in elections, Maariv reported.

The report comes after the deputy head of the Muslim Brotherhood, Rashad Bayoumi, was quoted as saying that it would not recognise Israel and would hold a referendum on the Egypt-Israel peace treaty. The more conservative Salafist al-Nour party, second to the Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party in the number of seats won in the parliamentary elections so far, has previously said that it will honour the peace treaty, amid Israeli and US fears about the fate of the accords under an Islamist-dominated parliament.

Meanwhile, the New York Times says the US has held high-level meetings with the Muslim Brotherhood in recent weeks, which "constitute a historic shift in a foreign policy". It says:

The shift is, on one level, an acknowledgment of the new political reality here, and indeed around the region, as Islamist groups come to power.

The reversal also reflects the administration's growing acceptance of the Brotherhood's repeated assurances that its lawmakers want to build a modern democracy that will respect individual freedoms, free markets and international commitments, including Egypt's treaty with Israel.

11.58am: Three people were killed in Homs today, according to activists, on a day when the Arab League observers were due to continue inspecting the city.

The Local Local Coordination Committees in Syria said they were among five people killed today.

It named one of those killed in Homs as 16-year-old Omar Haitham al-Tadmwri. The activist group said he was killed by sniper fire.

One of other two deaths occurred in Hama.

This video, purportedly filmed in Hama on Tuesday appears to show Arab League observers ignoring pleas to inspect allegations of atrocities by residents.

Activists and the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights have accused the Syrian authorities of trying to mislead the observers, according to AP.

They say authorities are changing neighborhood signs to confuse the monitors, taking them to areas loyal to the regime and painting army vehicles to look like those of the police — in order to claim the army has pulled out of flashpoint regions.

11.45am: The Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) says turnout on Tuesday, the first day of the final phase of voting for the people's assembly, was around 35%.

Turnout in the first two rounds was much higher, at 52% in the first round and 67% in the second round. Voting continues in the third and final round today.

Meanwhile, newly elected FJP female MPs have defended the new parliament - and the FJP - amid criticism over the lack of women elected.

Aza Al-Garf said:

I believe one elected female candidate may very well prove to be more efficient than a number of appointed ones who have no knowledge regarding women's affairs and their problems ...

The FJP equally supported its female candidates funding them and campaigning for them with as much vigoUr as it did its male candidates. Women in the Muslim Brotherhood have had an active role since the group's establishment over 80 years ago.

11.08am: The Egyptian justice minister, Adel Abdel Hamid, has requested information on 73 registered civil society organisations as part of the attorney general's investigations into the foreign funding of civil society organisations, al-Masry al-Youm reports, citing a source within the ministry of insurance and social affairs.

The report would seem to contradict an assurance given by the head of the armed forces, Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, that the operating environment for NGOs in Egypt would be made less hostile. That assurance came in the wake of unprecedented armed raids on a series of high profile human rights and pro-democracy organisations by Egyptian security forces on 29 December.

A joint statement by six human rights groups including the Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies and Human Rights Watch said that the raids "are taking place in the context of the larger campaign lead by the Supreme Council for Armed Forces (Scaf) and the Egyptian government starting in June 2011 against civil society organisations, and more specifically human rights groups, in Egypt".

The US said it was "deeply concerned" by Thursday's raids, which targeted 10 groups, including the US-government funded National Democratic Institute, founded by former secretary of state Madeleine Albright, and the International Republican Institute, whose chairman is Republican senator John McCain. One senator warned that it could affect US foreign aid . But the Pentagon also expressed "appreciation" for the decision to stop the raids and make it easier for NGOs to operate in Egypt.

Egyptian ministers have since claimed that Scaf knew nothing about the raids and said no military or police forces participated in them.

Meanwhile, Germany announced yesterday that it is sending an envoy to Egypt to press authorities over the raid on the Cairo office of German thinktank he Konrad Adenauer Foundation, which has links to Chancellor Angela Merkel's party.

Reuters reported on Tuesday that the raids had disrupted the work of leading Western-backed election monitors during the final phase of voting for the lower house of parliament, the people's assembly, and drawn accusations that the army was deliberately trying to weaken oversight of the vote and silence opponents. Some of the NGOs say they will take legal action against the "repressive measures" employed against them.

elaraby-cartoon

10.56am: Syria's state news agency has set out the itinerary for today's visits by Arab League observers. The monitors are due to visit: Daael in the southern province of Deraa today; Homs including Baba Amro and Harasta near Damascus.

Foreign ministry spokesman Jihad Makdisi insisted that the Syrian authorities were doing "everything necessary to facilitate the League's mission".

Deutsche Presse-Agentur quoted him saying: "Syria is betting on the impartiality and professionalism in the work of the Arab League monitors".

Protesters in the north west province of Idlib demonstrated against the league's mission on Tuesday. They held a placard [pictured] of showing the head of the Arab League Nabil Elaraby drinking the blood of a bleeding Syria with Bashar al-Assad dressed as Dracula.

Jay Carney

10.22am: The Obama administration has hinted that it is prepared to consider tougher measures against Syria if the Arab League mission continues to fail.

At a press conference on Tuesday White House spokesman Jay Carney [pictured] was asked whether the administration was considering a "Libya-esque approach" to Syria.

He replied:

The President takes no options off the table in this situation. But we are very focused on a diplomatic approach ... We have made clear that if the Arab League initiative is not implemented, the international community will have to consider new measures to compel a halt to the regime's violence against its own citizens.

As sniper fire, torture and murder in Syria continue, it is clear that the requirements of the Arab League protocol have not been met. Across the country the Syrian people continue to suffer at the hand of the Assad regime and as indiscriminating killing and - indiscriminate killing of scores of civilians continues.

... We're working with our international partners to increase the pressure on the Assad regime to cease the completely unacceptable violence that it's been perpetrating on its own citizens.

Foreign Policy magazine's the Cable blog reported that the administration was "quietly preparing options for how to assist the Syrian opposition, including gaming out the unlikely option of setting up a no-fly zone in Syria and preparing for another major diplomatic initiative."

It said the National Security Council had set up an group to consider the options.

The options under consideration include establishing a humanitarian corridor or safe zone for civilians in Syria along the Turkish border, extending humanitarian aid to the Syrian rebels, providing medical aid to Syrian clinics, engaging more with the external and internal opposition, forming an international contact group, or appointing a special coordinator for working with the Syrian opposition (as was done in Libya), according to the two officials, both of whom are familiar with the discussions but not in attendance at the meetings.

One of its sources played down talk of a Libya-style operation.

"This isn't Libya. What happens in Libya stays in Libya, but that is not going to happen in Syria. The stakes are higher," the official said. "Right now, we see the risks of moving too fast as higher than the risks of moving too slow."

9.46am: Tehran has demanded the release of seven Iranians who the Syrian government claim were kidnapped last month in Homs, AFP reports.

It claims an unknown group calling itself the "Movement Against the Expansion of Shiism in Syria" has claimed responsibility for abducting the engineers.

Iran's Press TV carried a photograph of five of the men who were initially reported kidnapped. Two were seized when they went to investigate, it claimed.

Activists were sceptical of the original reports of the kidnapping. Syrian blogger Maysloon tweeted: "What were five Iranians doing in Homs when even foreign media aren't allowed there for 'security' reasons? Something stinks."

Syria's state news agency initially said eight engineers of different nationalities were captured by an armed gang.

9.34am: The Bahraini government has increased its crackdown on pro-democracy campaigners despite a pledge to usher in reform, Middle East analysts Toby Jones and Ala'a Shehabi argue in Foreign Policy magazine.

The Bahraini government is not interested in reform or reconciliation. It has ignored calls for an end to its assault on pro-democracy forces, and in the last few weeks has actually intensified its crackdown. Security forces have once again laid siege to the country's many poor villages, home to most of its Shia majority as well as the country's pro-democracy movement. Several people have been killed in the last month by police. Thick and choking tear gas has become a fixture across the island. This recent turn for the worse comes just over four weeks after the Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry (BICI), headed by the respected M. Cherif Bassiouni, released its report charging the government and security forces with using excessive force in its handling of street protests in the spring. Many had hoped that the report would signal a new opportunity for Bahrain's competing political forces to come together and forge a way through the country's impasse. Sadly, neither the government nor the mainstream opposition has risen to the occasion. The country's political crisis is worsening as a result, and the prospects of reform fading from view.

Joost Hiltermann and Kelly McEvers from the International Crisis Group reached a similar conclusion in a blog post for the New York Review of Books.

The longer the government fails to respond in a substantive way to allegations in the Bassiouni report—for instance, by sacking key figures believed to be responsible for the abuse, such as the Minister of Interior—the longer such unrest will continue.

Indeed, if there is another round of mass protests in the city centre (for example, following more deaths as a result of actions by security forces in Shia villages like Aali) and the regime again resorts to violent suppression, it may no longer be able to maintain the precarious status quo.

8.27am: (all times GMT) Welcome to Middle East Live. The focus remains on Syria as the killing continues despite the presence of Arab League observers.

Here's a round up of the latest developments:

Syria

Activists claim sniper fire from government buildings prevented Arab League observers visiting a neighbourhood of Hama. Residents tried to persuade the observers to visit the Hamidiya area but they refused to enter on safety grounds, according to opposition activists.

Video from Monday appeared to show shots being fired while observers visited Hama.

The Arab League is to hold an meeting in Cairo on Saturday to discuss the fate of its observer mission to Syria, amid mounting criticism of the initiative, the Independent reports. But in the meantime 50 more observers are to be sent to Syria in effort to monitor and help prevent the continuing crackdown against anti-government protesters.

Homs activist Khalid Abou Salah has appeared in another video with Arab League observers, this time handing over an armoured vehicle captured by defected troops.

The clip came as the leader of the Free Syrian Army, Riad al-Asaad warned of further attacks against the regime if the league's monitoring mission failed to stop the violence.

At least 18 members of Syrian security forces were killed in the city of Jasim, after the defection of dozens of soldiers, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. The bodies of the dead men were taken to a government hospital in Deraa, it said.

Egypt

The Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice party could be heading towards an outright majority in the Parliament while the final round of voting continues, the New York Times reports. It already has over 40% of the vote and the final round includes some of its biggest strongholds.

The Muslim Brotherhood's official spokesperson Mahmoud Ghozlan has suggested granting members of the military council immunity from prosecution in return for a peaceful handover of power, Jadaliyya reports. Ghozlan said that such an initiative would save the country "trouble" in the sense of escalation in violence and instability.

Libya

Four people were killed and at least five injured in a gunfight between rival militias in the capital, Tripoli. A brigade from the city of Misrata tried to free prisoners held inside an old intelligence building bombed by Nato leading to a confrontation with another armed group from Tripoli, the BBC reports.

Morocco

Morocco's ruling coalition has formed a new government that gives top posts to an Islamist party but also keeps close allies of the king in powerful positions, the Huffington Post reports. The Islamist Justice and Development Party won the most seats in November's elections and took 12 of the 31 cabinet posts.

Iran

The United States has insisted it will continue to deploy its warships in the Gulf in the face of threats from Iran. General Ataollah Salehi, Iran's army chief warned an American aircraft carrier not to return to the Persian Gulf in Tehran's latest tough rhetoric over the strategic waterway, part of a feud over new sanctions that has sparked a jump in oil prices.

The daughter of former Iranian president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani has been sentenced to six months in jail after being found guilty of "spreading propaganda" against the country's regime. Faezeh Hashemi, a political activist and former member of the Iranian parliament whose views are close to those of the reformists, was informed of the court's verdict on Tuesday.

Israel and the Palestinian territories

Israeli and Palestinian negotiators met for the first time in more than a year in Amman on Tuesday and agreed to keep talking at further meetings. Jordan's foreign minister added that Israel had received written Palestinian proposals on borders and security and would respond.

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