Hello and welcome to our live coverage of the latest states to vote in the Republican presidential nomination process. And it's a triple bill tonight. Here's Ryan Devereaux's precis.
For the first time since the battle for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination began, multiple states states are weighing in on the race on the same day. Colorado and Minnesota hosting caucuses, while Missouri is hosting a "non-binding" primary.
Mitt Romney is in good standing in Colorado. The former Massachusetts governor handily won the state in 2008. Colorado is home to a significant conservative demographic, particularly in the city of Colorado Springs, which houses the Christian conservative organization, Focus on the Family, and a large evangelical population. Colorado's caucuses are only open to the state's registered Republicans, of which there are over a million.
Rick Santorum could have a shot at stealing some of Romney's momentum in both Minnesota and Missouri. According to Public Policy Polling, Santorum has the edge on Romney in Minnesota, where the GOP is known to be deeply conservative. Meanwhile the former Pennsylvania senator has been campaigning hard in Missouri, and his chances at victory could be bolstered by the fact that Newt Gingrich is not on the ballot in the state. Though there no delegates up for grabs in Missouri, a win would certainly add some energy to Santorum's campaign, which hasn't been able to claim victory since the Iowa's primary last month.
Ron Paul is under pressure to deliver improved results after a poor performance in Nevada. The Texas congressman is known to thrive in caucus states but failed to do so there. Paul's focus on caucus states is underscored by the fact that he's chosen to opt out of today's Missouri primary.
Meanwhile, all signs point to a bad day for Newt Gingrich. The former house speaker won't be campaigning in any of the three states at stake today and instead will be heading to Ohio. Gingrich's poll numbers have lagging and the drawn-out contest he previously advocated for increasingly looks like it could be his undoing.
So with five states having held caucuses or primaries to decide the Republican presidential nomination, tonight it's the turn of Minnesota, Colorado and Missouri to add their voice.
Here's what is interesting tonight: the results are entirely unpredictable. Because very little polling has been done after the excitement of the early states – where there were more polls than caucus-goers in Iowa – the winners and losers are up in the air.
For Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich, these three states are a chance to throw a wrench into the Mitt Romney Conveyor Belt of Success. Or, if Romney wins all three, they face getting crushed by the Mitt-Machine.
In the case of Minnesota and Colorado, these are real caucuses, with 40 and 36 national convention delegates at stake in a roundabout way. (The caucuses actually select delegates to a state convention later in the year, as is the case in the Iowa caucuses.) But that's still more than is at stake in the Missouri primary today – which has precisely zero delegates at stake.
That's because the Missouri primary is a pro forma contest – the details of which need not concern us right now – that some are describing as a "beauty contest". That's not accurate either, since in a beauty contest the winner at least gets a sash and a tiara. And let's not consider the prospect of Newt Gingrich in a swimsuit.
But Missouri is at least a high-powered straw poll, and let's face it, if you're reading this you are a politics junkie and would probably watch turkeys caucusing on the subject of Christmas. Which would be pretty interesting because … well, never mind.
The polls close in Missouri at 8pm ET, exactly the Colorado caucuses begin. We should start getting the first results from Minnesota at around 9pm ET, which is coincidentally when the caucuses in Colorado start, which results from the Centennial State from 10pm ET onwards.
Please, leave your comments below, especially if you are a Republican from Colorado, Minnesota or Missouri. Or at least pretending to be one on the internet. But we'd prefer real Republicans from CO, MO or MN, thank you.
The New York Times's Micah Coahen on the FiveThirtyEight blog explains why tonight's caucuses and primary are a toss-up:
Characterizing an electorate for a caucus is much trickier than doing so for a primary. That's a reason there have been very few polls previewing Tuesday's contests — it's difficult for pollsters to model the likely turnout.
So while pollsters PPP have striven to do meaningful polling, it's hard to put together a meaningful data set.
Our polling guru Harry Enten offers an explanation for how Mitt Romney will perform tonight – in inverse proportion to the number of evangelical voters:
Graphically, the relationship between born-again Christian and evangelical and the Romney vote becomes quite clear. Romney's percentage of the vote as opposed to the proportion won by the conservative alternatives (by now, just Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum) tallies quite closely with the percentage of voters in a state's exit polls who say they are born-again Christian or evangelical.
Graphic: Harry Enten
While we are waiting for tonight's results to start gushing in, you have a period of tens of minutes to enter our unscientific and very simple election night prediction contest. It's right here. And there are Mystery Prizes! I say "mystery prizes" because that makes them sound sexy and exciting, rather than a bit rubbish.
And since there are only six entries (well, 25) you actually might win. How about that?
Rick Santorum must fancy his chances of winning the Missouri primary tonight, since he's holding his "victory party" in St Charles, one of the less exciting parts of the great state of Missouri. By which I mean St Louis.
So when are we expecting results tonight?
Missouri: polls close 7pm CT (8pm ET)
Minnesota: caucuses start 7pm CT (8pm ET), AP expects first results about an hour later.
Colorado: caucuses start 7pm MT (9pm ET), AP expects first results around 10pm ET.
Missouri and Minnesota are in the Central Time zone, Colorado is in the Mountain Time zone.
While we wait, here are some key facts about the states tonight:
Missouri: state capital Jefferson City
Population: 6 million
State fish: Channel Catfish
Colorado: state capital Denver
Population: 5 million
State fish: Greenback Cutthroat Trout
Minnesota: state capital St Paul
Population: 5.3 million
State fish: Walleye
Mitt Romney is always banging on how he founded Staples (Non-Americans: Staples is a chain that sells, well, staples. And staplers). In fact it was co-founded by a guy named Tom Stemberg, who got a slice of investment from Romney's Bain Capital venture capital fund.
Stemberg remains a big fan of Romney's and is repaying the favour by investing in Romney's presidential campaign. And like Romney he also wants to see Obama's healthcare reforms repealed – because Stemberg wants to save America from the "lactation chambers":
Tom Stemberg, co-founder of mega-office supply chain Staples is questioning an Obamacare provision that discourages job creation by dictating employers funnel their capital into lactation chambers.
"Do you want [farming retailer] Tractor Supply to open stores or would you rather they take their capital and do what Obamacare and its 2,700 pages dictates – which is to open a lactation chamber at every single store that they have?" he asked.
"I'm big on breastfeeding; my wife breastfed," Stenberg added. "I'm all for that. I don't think every retail store in America should have to go to lactation chambers, which is what Obamacare foresees.
"You can't make this stuff up."
Yes, that's right, you "can't make up" the idea that women with babies might want to be able to breastfeed in private, it's that insane. In fact just typing it seems nuts.
And that's without even speculating what "lactation chambers" might be a reference to.
By the way, regarding the "lactation chambers" that – like death panels – Obamacare is about to force upon America: it's only for companies with more than 50 employees. From an offical FAQ on the subject:
Do employers need to create a permanent, dedicated space for use by nursing mother employees? No. A space temporarily created or converted into a space for expressing milk or made available when needed by the nursing mother is sufficient provided that the space is shielded from view, and free from any intrusion from co-workers and the public.
Do employers have to provide a lactation space even if they don't have any nursing mother employees? No. The statute requires employers to provide a space for a nursing employee "each time such employee has need to express the milk." If there is no employee with a need to express breast milk, then the employer would not have an obligation to provide a space.
Ari Fleischer says tonight's election results are totally hardcore:
It's an old style nite bcause there are no exit polls. Usually we have a good sense of how it's going. Tonite it's just results.
— Ari Fleischer (@AriFleischer) February 7, 2012
Bret Baier on Fox News shows a graphic of GOP turnout in the five first voting states, from Iowa to Nevada. And compared to 2008, there were falls in four out of the five states – only South Carolina saw a rise in turnout. Overall, the turnout is down about 9%.
What that tells us is that for all the puffing and blowing, the Republican grassroots are really not excited about this race. And who can blame them if Mitt Romney is the front runner over Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum?
And remember: it's not like the 2008 field was exciting and dynamic either.
This is the fourth US election cycle that I've covered and I can say entirely anecdotally this is the least enthusiastic of any of them. This election certainly fails the "bumper sticker" test. I can't remember the last time I saw a car with a candidate's name on a bumper sticker.
So one reason is that the field is unexcititng. Another is the deluge of negative ads from all sides, which may be turning voters off. And a third reason is that the excitement and enthusiasm on the Democratic side last time may have helped boost Republican turnout.
But who knows. The main point is: Republicans are sitting on their hands and that's not good for their prospects of winning the White House in November.
Once again I'd like to welcome tonight's celebrity reader, Lib Dem councillor Daisy Benson, leader of the Liberal Democrat group on Reading Borough Council.
How did the GOP candidates react to the court ruling on California's Proposition 8 and the prospect of gays getting married – to each other?
• Newt Gingrich said the ruling exposed Americans "to the radical overreach of federal judges and their continued assault on the Judeo-Christian foundations of the United States," continuing:
Should the Supreme Court fail to heed the disastrous lessons if its own history and attempt to impose its will on the marriage debate in this country by affirming today's 9th Circuit decision, it will bear the burden of igniting a constitutional crisis of the first order.
• Mitt Romney said in a prepared statement that "unelected judges cast aside the will of the people of California," and vowed to "appoint judges who interpret the Constitution as it is written and not according to their own politics and prejudices."
• Rick Santorum sent out a tweet:
7M Californians had their rights stripped away today by activist 9th Circuit judges. As president I will work to protect marriage.
— Rick Santorum (@RickSantorum) February 7, 2012
I'm trying to think exactly what rights have been stripped away from anyone in California as a result of this ruling. The right not to be around gay married people? Yes, it's right there in the Constitution, on the back.
Couples celebrate after the ninth US circuit court of appeals ruled California's Proposition 8 ban on same-sex marriages as unconstitutional. Photograph: John G Mabanglo/EPA
Here's how the Associated Press sums up the slightly downbeat atmosphere tonight:
Taken together, the number of delegates at stake Tuesday was the largest one-day total yet in the Republican race to pick a rival for President Barack Obama. Even so, the campaigning was a pale comparison to the Iowa caucuses or primaries last month in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida.
Television advertising was sparse; neither Colorado nor Minnesota hosted a candidates' debate, and there was relatively little campaigning by the contenders themselves until the past few days.
The same was true in last weekend's Nevada caucuses, which Romney won on the heels of a Florida primary victory days earlier. The same pattern holds in Maine, where caucuses finish on Saturday.
If you are reading this then you are a real political junkie. We should print t-shirts: "Yes I was up for the Colorado primary 2012. Woo."
Polls have just closed in Missouri. The non-binding polls. (There is a Democratic primary as well, and that is a real, binding primary with delegates and everything. I think we can call that one for B Obama.)
In the state of Minnesota, the GOP caucuses are about to start.
All rise for the Minnesota state song – Hail! Minnesota
Like the stream that bends to sea,
Like the pine that seeks the blue,
Minnesota, still for thee,
Thy sons are strong and true
On CNN, Ari Fleischer is gamely explaining why the GOP turnout is so lacklustre on the grounds that voters think Mitt Romney has it in the bag so aren't bothered to vote.
Nice try Ari. Not so long ago I was in rural Virginia and in a huge carpark there was not a single bumper sticker for any candidate. This proves nothing but my guess is that in 2008 things would have been different.
Two precincts are in from Missouri! And it's Mitt Romney leading from Rick Santorum , but it's only a couple of hundred votes. Early days.
With nearly 1% of the vote counted in Missouri, Mitt Romney is leading. Which is appropriate because Mitt Romney is part of the 1%.
Also, "Uncommitted" is currently in third place with 10%. It is beating Ron Paul.
Wow, some caucuses in Minnesota have started reporting. That was quick.
Rick Santorum was glitter-bombed in Minnesota today. Which was nice.
Rick Santorum is glitter-bombed during a campaign rally at the National Sports Center in Blaine, Minnesota. Photograph: Craig Lassig/EPA
If you want the latest county-by-county level results from Missouri, then you'll want to check out the Missouri state elections site.
And here are the first results from Minnesota:
First precinct in from Minnesota gives Santorum 7, Paul 6, Romney 1 and Gingrich 1
— Jamie Dupree (@jamiedupree) February 8, 2012
Well I think we can call this one for … let's see. Anyway, back over to Missouri. It's very close between Romney and Santorum.
CNN's Anderson Cooper is now reporting that the Pentagon is "reviewing military options" in relation to Syria, although non-military options remain the current policy.
It's a reminder that over all the froth of the presidential primaries, there's serious business going on in the rest of the world that isn't affected by Rick Santorum's performance in a Colorado caucus.
Professor Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia raises an awful spectre:
MO tally was just tied at 3,088 each for Romney & Santorum. Let's all hope it isn't another Iowa. #allnightlong
— Larry Sabato (@LarrySabato) February 8, 2012
From a TV coverage point of view, CNN is doing a cracking job in Minnesota, with "caucus cams" showing live shots from inside actual caucuses, and reporters being shushed by officials and everyone else sitting around on folding chairs and wearing fleeces.
Meanwhile, Fox News have Bill O'Reilly telling Charles Krauthammer what a great guy he (O'Reilly) is.
Colorado – start your caucuses!
Awesome - now Wolf Blitzer is shouting questions at GOP caucus-goers via CNN's reporter in Castle Rock, Colorado.
Looks like it's pretty cold there.
A sign welcomes Mitt Romney for a campaign rally at RV America in Loveland, Colorado. Photograph: Emmanuel Dunand/AFP/Getty Images
Rick Santorum looks like he's running away with Missouri – he now has a 5,000 vote lead over Mitt Romney, with 8% of precincts in. We may even be able to call this now.
In Missouri there are 3,100 precincts in total in the state, and more than 600 of them are in St Louis County and St Louis City – about 20% of the total of precincts, and Mitt Romney is likely to be strongest there.
Election official Chuck Wentworth walks around the empty polling room at The Heights in St Louis, Missouri. Photograph: Sarah Conard/Reuters
On CNN, Wolf Blitzer is now goading his reporter into taking his camera into the room where they are counting the caucus ballots.
There's a school in Castle Rock, Colorado that sure has a lot of fancy Apple Macs. Just sayin'.
It must be the computer room or something.
Anyway, despite being surrounded by a roomful of Macs, the vote count is done on bits of paper being doled out by hand. In China, people are laughing at you America!
CNN now showing the people in Stillwater, Minnesota, folding up chairs in a high school gym. This is democracy in action, CNN keeps telling us.
OK, so Rick Santorum is 10,000 votes up over Mitt Romney in Missouri, 51% to 27%, with 16% of precincts in. Romney is hosing Santorum in St Louis and its suburbs, but there isn't enough St Louis to save him here.
I'm calling Missouri for RICK SANTORUM. But AP, you can wait half an hour.
Not everyone is delighted by CNN's "democracy inaction" coverage:
@CNN, is this for real? We are literally watching people putting chairs away. This is some sort of a piss-take, yes?
— Liz Mair (@LizMair) February 8, 2012
Update: now the chairs have all been put away. I know this because CNN are now back there live.
The Guardian's Ewen MacAskill sends over his thoughts on what it all means:
This is shaping up as a bad night for Mitt Romney only a week after his win in Florida. After seeing off Newt Gingrich in Florida, he was beginning to look like the inevitable Republican nominee. Now the questions rise up again about his failure to inspire the party grassroots. If he can't inspire them now, will they come out to work for him in November? If he can't inspire Republicans, how is he going to fare with independents?
It's a good night for Santorum if he take Minnesota, reviving a campaign that looked as if it was going to have the life squeezed out of it between Gingrich and Romney.
If Gingrich and Santorum keep winning occasional states and taking a share of the delegates, and even Paul winning maybe a state like Maine and accumulating delegates too, Romney might be denied the 1,144 delegate majority he needs. And then, the scenario American political journalists are all hoping for, it goes to a showdown at the party convention in Tampa, Florida, in August.
And on that note: in Missouri, Rick Santorum is now about 20,000 votes up on Mitt Romney with 27% of precincts in. Romney is being crushed here. And we all thought this was going to be boring.
NBC News and CNN finally catch up with me and call Missouri for Rick Santorum. D'uh.
Oh and it's just after 9.45pm ET and the Associated Press's room full of boffins says Rick Santorum will win the Missouri primary. Thanks, Einsteins.
To Minnesota, and it's looking good for Santorum there too, with 13% of the precincts in, and Mitt Romney is in third place behind Ron Paul.
And in Colorado, with just a tiny fraction counted, again it's Santorum, Paul, Romney in that order.
In other news: it's a really bad night for Newt Gingrich.
Bad night: Newt Gingrich speaks to supporters at the Ramada Hotel in Bloomington, Minnesota. Photograph: Craig Lassig/EPA
On CNN Erick Erickson says the reason why Rick Santorum is doing so well is because Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich have nuked each other to death.
I disagree. I think this just proves that the three candidates of Romney, Santorum and Gingrich each appeal to different segments of the party.
Now I know we are all having a laugh about how the Missouri primary was just a beauty contest and all that – but Mitt Romney has been crushed there by Rick Santorum, in all parts of the state. Santorum's even beating Romney in St Louis, and aceing him by 40,000 votes out of just under 110,000 between the two candidates.
You know who else is having a good night? Rupert Murdoch, who has repeatedly tweeted in support of Rick Santorum, calling him the "only candidate with genuine big vision for country".
Now, you'd think Rupert would have been lined up behind Mitt Romney, right? But no, it seems not.
Only his tenth-ever tweet was this one:
Good to see santorum surging in Iowa. Regardless of policies, all debates showed principles, consistency and humility like no other.
— Rupert Murdoch(@rupertmurdoch) January 1, 2012
Then, a day later:
Can't resist this tweet, but all Iowans think about Rick Santorum.Only candidate with genuine big vision for country.
— Rupert Murdoch(@rupertmurdoch) January 3, 2012
And a third, five days later:
Santorum right.America a big, good society capable of anything.Not libertarian!
— Rupert Murdoch(@rupertmurdoch) January 9, 2012
Watch how the results are playing out in real time, state-by-state – and in 3D! Here's our rather neat comprehensive election graphic page.
In Minnesota, with 25% of the precincts reporting, Rick Santorum is doing it again. He's on 44%, with Ron Paul on 26% and Mitt Romney on 17%. I'm calling Minnesota for RICK SANTORUM.
Suggested headline for all media: "The Vest Man Wins!"
Colorado looks like a tight one, and we are being told that Rick Santorum is about to speak, which is a smart move: he's won two states – CNN and other networks have called Minnesota for Santorum – so he should get on TV before it gets too late.
The Romney election-night party in Colorado looks like a group of well-dressed people waiting to board an airplane.
The Guardian's Ewen MacAskill is live in Washington DC - and he assesses the scale of Mitt Romney's defeats tonight:
Rommey's campaign team is spinning that defeats here and there are to be expected, pointing to the many states Rommey picked up during the 2008 nomination battle with John McCain. But it is not comparable. Once McCain won South Carolina and Florida, it was effectively over. McCain did not even bother campaigning in some of the states.
This is different. Romney had been expected to make a clean sweep of the February states and was fighting to win. Losing Missouri can be explained away: there are no delegates at stake. But Minnesota is a big loss. It is not just that he lost but that he has lost badly.
"Wow! Conservatism is alive and well in Colorado and Missouri and Minnesota!" says a buoyant Rick Santorum, who is on stage in St Charles.
He's clearly delighted, and kicks off with a sweet tribute to his wife.
"Your votes were heard loudly tonight, and in Massachusetts I suspect they were heard particularly loud tonight," says Smiling Rick, referring to Mitt Romney's home state.
Now Santorum leaves the intra-mural stuff behind and starts hitting on Barack Obama. "He thinks he's smarter than you, he thinks he's a privileged person who should rule over you," says Santorum of Obama. I'm not sure that's a winning line in a general election, even if it is a popular meme on the GOP/Republican nexus.
Here we go. Rick Santorum gets into his stride with his anti-Obama tirade – this is a change of gear for him, raising his sights to the president in this way.
Mitt Romney has the same positions as Barack Obama and would not be the best person to fight for America.... ladies and gentlemen I don't stand here to be the conservative alternative to Mitt Romney. I stand here to be the conservative alternative to Barack Obama.
Rick Santorum celebrates in St Charles, Missouri. Photograph: Jeff Roberson/AP
Rick Santorum is very careful to be pronouncing Missouri as "Missorah" in the local dialect. (On that note, it's pronounced Saint Louis, not Sint Louie.)
Santorum is going for the higher ground than Romney, avoiding the "jobs, jobs, jobs" mantra and talking about rights and big government.
Here's a thought: how much of Santorum's good showing tonight, and Romney's dismal performance, is related to the improving economic picture?
Santorum wraps up his speech. He is, without question, a better speaker than Romney, and lacks Gingrich's mad-professor stream of mad-professor consciousness.
Looking forward, the Guardian's Ewen MacAskill has some advice for the Republican contenders:
What the anti-Romney candidates need is a non-aggression pact, an agreement not to stand against one another in certain states. Say Santorum does not bother standing in Georgia, giving Gingrich a free run against Romney (and Ron Paul). It does not have to be announced. Just an informal agreement to stand aside in certain states when it becomes obvious who the anti-Romney front-runner is in each state.
The outcome of such a pact would be that Gingrich and Santorum would maximise their energy and resources – which are far smaller than Romney – and pick off Romney state by state.
Meanwhile, Ron Paul is confirmed in second place in Minnesota, leaving Romney in third. A bad night just got worse. He needs to win Colorado to stop this being a rout.
Now Ron Paul is up: "It must be easier campaigning for something than campaigning for nothing."
Will he repeat his demand from a Minnesota caucus tonight that the Federal reserve prove that it has all its gold?
"We have to challenge the entitlement system and a foreign policy that gives us all these perpetual wars," says Ron.
"People tell me Ron you could do a lot better if you just change your tune on this foreign policy stuff," he goes on, to loud applause. And now he draws a parallel with the fall of the Soviet Union and the decline of America. Always a vote winner in the GOP. Not.
Well, he got second place in Minnesota tonight so he'll get some delegates.
OK, now I don't want to worry, anyone but Colorado hasn't posted any caucus results for the last hour or so. Uh oh.
Finally the Colorado machine whirs into life and starts spitting out results: and again it's Rick Santorum in the lead.
Santorum wins Adams County outside Denver by 10 points. Romney won Adams by 53 points in 2008. I would say that doesn't bode well for tonite
— Neil King, WSJ (@NKingofDC) February 8, 2012
Another question: did Santorum gain support in the wake of the Prop 8 gay marriage and Susan G Komen news this last week? Given Mitt Romney's well publicised flip-flops on abortion and gay marriage, it may be that it focused the minds of Republican caucus-goers on social issues to a greater extent.
And here's Mitt Loser speaking to all three of his fans. "The race is too close to call in Colorado at this point but I'm confident I'll come in number one or number two," says Romney, who looks like he's having to eat a plate of number two right there.
And now we are now very quickly into the awfulness of Barack Obama's presidency. Here's a real vote winner for Mitt Romney: detailed exegisis of Obama's 2008 nomination speech in Denver. Mitt appears to think he's gone back in time and is running against Obama in 2008. Talk about being in denial.
Meanwhile in Colorado, Rick Santorum is up by ten percentage points over Romney – 41% to 31% – in Colorado, with 29% of the precincts in.
Ah yes, Mitt makes a quick detour into how he's never served a day in Washington – unlike that Santorum guy.
A pretty dull speech there by Romney, just the usual stuff: banging away at Obama but not much in the way of what he would do instead. He did add in some lines about how his father started out working on a lathe, but how much voters give a candidate credit for what their father did, especially as when the father – George Romney, in this case – was a wealthy and influential man by the time Mitt came around.
Mitt Romney addresses supporters on a caucus night event in Denver, Colorado. Photograph: Emmanuel Dunand/AFP/Getty Images
After the speech there was a brief kerfuffle as the Secret Service hustles away someone who appeared to try to glitter-bomb Romney.
I know glitter bomb people harmless, but Secret Service doesn't do harmlessthat well. Oughta stop. RT @secupp Romney avoided glitter bomb.
— Roger Simon (@politicoroger) February 8, 2012
I didn't quite believe my ears when I heard CNN's Wolf Blitzer say this:
"It sounds corny," says Wolf, who fails to take his own words of warning and continues:
As we're speaking people are dying in Syria because they wouldd like to have a caucus, they'd like to have a primary, they can't have one, we're having ours here here in the United States, let's just keep some perspective on what's going on.
Of course "some perspective" would suggest not drawing a parallel between a Missouri non-binding GOP beauty contest and people getting killed on the streets on Homs.
This tweet from the Atlantic's Molly Ball sums up the night:
Tonight's political narrative: God this is stupid lame doesn't matter boring insignificant HOLY SHIT WOULD YOU LOOK AT THAT
— Molly Ball (@mollyesque) February 8, 2012
Oh hey it's Newt Gingrich. It seems he gave a secret speech hidden from the CNN cameras.
It appears Newt Gingrich pulled a fast one on the Liberal Elite Media by giving a secret speech several hours ago and then disappearing.
So with 43% of the precincts in, Rick Santorum is well ahead of Mitt Romney but the numbers are small and we're waiting on the big counties around Denver and Colorado Springs to finally call this thing for Santorum.
So in conclusion: the shape of this contest has been changed completely, far more than anyone predicted before hand – and confirming how hard it was to forecast thanks to the lack of polling data and turnout guesstimates.
In fact turnout is the interesting question here: it seems turnout among GOP voters was well down compared with 2008. That's very bad news, especially for Romney. It proves he has been unable to bring in new voters. With the Republican primary base shrinking, Santorum did so much better.
But Santorum didn't just defeat Romney: he crushed him by huge margins in Missouri and Minnesota, by the wide margins that undermine any claim to being a front runner or favourite.
The real winner? Once again, it's Barack Obama. Democrats were also voting in Colorado tonight, and it's claimed that 80,000 Democratic voters turned out – in an uncontested event, compared with the supposed excitement of a contested Republican race. And while in 2008 70,000 Republicans turned out, it appears only 65,000 did tonight [updated: was 45,000].
That's significant because Colorado is a genuine swing state, one that has had economic difficulty and is ripe to picked up by a Republican candidate. But tonight's events suggest otherwise.
So the latest news is that Rick Santorum has cleaned up the conservative stronghold around Colorado Springs, El Paso county, by 1,600 votes.
Romney is pulling votes back in the Denver and Boulder suburbs but not enough at this point.
Let's not forget: in 2008 Mitt Romney won Colorado easily, with 60% of the vote. So while it would be nice for Mittster to pull out a squeaker in Colorado tonight – and better than losing three from three – it's still a pretty grim performance.
What's weird is the Mitt Romney who won almost every category in Florida – young, old, Tea Party – has been replaced by the Moderate Mitt in Colorado.
Still waiting on the votes from the big counties in Denver, Colorado Springs and suburbs. So while 50% of the precincts are in, that only amounts to 25% of the total vote. Does that make sense?
Hilariously, CNN's John King says there is an encouraging sign for Mitt Romney in winning a "rural county" called Pitkin County. Ah, that's Aspen, John King, and that is Mitt Romney's sort of area: it has a Prada store.
OK, I'm calling Colorado for Santorum. I just don't care, it's late.
But seriously: Santorum's winning in the right places now.
Yes, more evidence that Rick Santorum has won: he's pulled it out in the big areas: Mesa, Pueblo, El Paso counties. Meanwhile, Romney can't win by big enough margins to make up the gap.
Now just waiting for everyone else to catch up.
This must be like torture for the Romney campaign. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of guys.
"OMG!" exclaimed Wolf Blitzer on CNN just now. Proof if it were needed that LOL culture has jumped the ... well, you know what it has jumped.
C'mon call it already.
So now it's official: the Colorado GOP says Rick Santorum has indeed won the state. Not by much, to be sure, but who cares.
Mitt Romney has now had an officially awful night: remember he won both Minnesota and Colorado in 2008 when he was the third-rung candidate after McCain and Huckabee.
In the end it wasn't even that close in Colorado: Santorum beat Romney by 40% to 35%, and a clear 3,500 votes.
So where does this leave Mitt Romney? Mix your own metaphor: in a ditch, up a creek without a paddle and the wheels coming off while taking on water and in a tail spin.
Mitt Romney was supposed to clean up in the caucus states thanks to his money, management and organisational skills. And what did it get him? A weak third place finish in Minnesota, a relatively moderate state that should have been in his sweet spot.
What went wrong? He has run a colourless, technocratic campaign centering around his business background and pounding his insights into job creation. It may be that the improving economy kicked that prop away and allowed Republican voters the excuse they needed to go for a more comfortable social conservative.
And it may be that social conservative issues – the Komen v Planned Parenthood fallout, the Prop 8 gay marriage decision, access to contraception – popped up at the right time for Rick Santorum as the candidate most closely identified. In the crucial conservative areas of Colorado Santorum received some key endorsements from the likes of Michelle Malkin.
Two other points to note: a bad night for Romney was even worse for Newt Gingrich, who finished a distant third in Colorado, a dire fourth in Minnesota, and couldn't even get on the ballot in Missouri.
And Ron Paul must have had high hopes in the two caucus states but once again underperformed, with a high point being just a second place in Minnesota. For all the talk about his followers' enthusiasm, there aren't nearly enough of them, just as there weren't in Iowa or Nevada.
Right then, that's it: three states, three wins for Rick Santorum. Who would have predicted that? This GOP race has been nothing if unpredictable.
Next up: a long break to allow Romney to lick his wounds and Santorum to raise some money. Aside from the result of the week-long Maine caucuses on Saturday, there's a debate in Arizona on 22 February, and then there's the primaries in Michigan and Arizona on 28 February. Romney must surely win Michigan – where his father was governor – but Arizona, who knows? One thing though: Romney has a lot of money behind him, far more than all the others.
And that's a wrap.