The Republican primary is so predicated on fearful conjurings of worst-case scenarios, it's surprising we haven't been to "Obamaville" before. This quasi-sci-fi tale comes courtesy of Rick Santorum's campaign, and posits how an Obama administration would effectively turn some presumably heartland "small town" into a decaying Tim Burton set. It's just the latest sour salvo in what's been the most negative election season in modern political history.
The clickiness of the Obamaville ad – it increased its viewership 160% over the first full week of its release – suggests that all this negativity attracts the attention of voters. But while negative ads seem to be the most effective – are they really the most watchable?
Measured against political videos in general, YouTube statistics show that adverts, positive or negative, are probably the least likely of all political content to catch fire. Last year, only four of the most-viewed political videos were ads; four of the other six were humorous and the other two notable for reasons beyond traditional video political discourse. One was President Obama speaking on the death of Osama bin Laden, and the other was college student Zach Wahl's speaking openly and passionately in favour of gay marriage – which was in fact the most-viewed of all political videos, by a long way.
The popularity of Wahl's speech is heartening given the cynical nature of almost every other clip – both the comic bits and the ads – although, weirdly, the cynicism can stem from how the ad is viewed as much as why it was made. It appears that campaign consultants seeking to strike the "must forward" chord with an advertisement have a few options: the ad must be ludicrous (the 8m views generated by Rick Perry's Strong ad were due almost entirely to it being so widely mocked – same with Herman Cain's "smoking man" video), or it must contain hysterical accusations about a rival candidate's darkly sinister motives (see: Obamaville). Some of both qualities is best.
As we gear up for what looks be final stretch (really this time) of the GOP contest, let's see if the other most popular recent entries – from the top 10 most-viewed according to Visible Measures and the Wall Street Journal – in this season's carnival of atrocities bear out this calculus.
NOTE: A few of the most-viewed videos are long-form, more like infomercials than commercial spots. For reasons having to do with my attention span, I'm going to keep my analysis to clips that could conceivably serve as traditional television ads. More speculatively but less selfishly, I would think that those who sit through, say, a 16-minute documentary about the Obama campaign are not drawn to the video out of curiosity, or are people who might be somewhat undecided about who they're supporting.
Obamaville
Views in the last week: 588,299 (#1 most-viewed)
Paid for by: The Santorum campaign
Main attack: An Obama second term will be of such devastating economic consequences that empty shoes will litter America's playgrounds. Also old people will look wistfully and hungrily into the distance.
Visual style: Windswept dismal tableaus, quick-cut edits with the intimation that children have died (those abandoned shoes!) I think this is from the guy who directed The Ring.
Click factor: Hey, people really liked The Ring! Also, the claims are so over-the-top that Obama partisans will be amused as conservatives take slash-fiction pleasure in the visualisation of their most fevered dreams.
Truthiness: The great thing about speculation is that it cannot be fact-checked.
Sick of Stimulus
Views: 420,940 (#2)
Paid for by: Cain Solutions (yes! Herman Cain! He's back! Sort of!)
Main attack: The stimulus package's policies regarding small businesses (these are not specified) put them in the place of defenceless bunny rabbits being used for skeet-shooting targets, by a very much out-of-context hipster accountant.
Visual style: Sepia-toned nostalgia, obviously harkening back to the days when we used bunny rabbits for skeet-shooting practice. Also there is a Second-Life-style visualisation of what I assume to be Herman Cain gazing thoughtfully over a valley landscape at the very end.
Click factor: "OMG HAVE YOU SEEN THE HERMAN CAIN AD WITH THE EXPLODING BUNNY?"
Truthiness: In all seriousness, the Obama stimulus package's programmes targeting small businesses have not succeeded as promised – the government, it turns out, has not been able to loan out billions of dollars it planned to. I doubt this is the Cain organisation's complaint, however. It is unclear where bunnies figure in.
Etch-a-Sketch
Views: 329,357 (#3)
Paid for by: The Ron Paul campaign
Main attack: Apparently someone mentioned something about an Etch-a-Sketch. No, really. First there's the infamous clip of the Romney adviser's innocent invocation of a convenient way to erase stuff. Then it's a collection of Santorum and Gingrich and various pundits all just using the word "Etch-a-Sketch" in some way. It's actually an ad for Ron Paul but there's no mention of him until the very end. The implication is, I guess, that he was too busy being a serious candidate to appear in the ad.
Visual style: Badly tuned television
Click factor: It's about Ron Paul. You want hits? Put something on the internet about Ron Paul.
Truthiness: People have certainly talked about that Etch-a-Sketch quote quite a bit.
The Obamacare Mandate
Views: 154,722 (#4)
Paid for by: American Crossroads (Super PAC created by Karl Rove)
Main attack: Obama was against the individual mandate before he was for it.
Visual style: Those Taiwanese re-enactments, only with less animation – Obama vs Obama arguing before a static supreme court.
Click factor: Boy, Obama sure is a hypocrite. I guess?
Truthiness: They got 'em on this one.
Operation Hot Mic
Views: 102,311 (#6)
Paid for by: American Crossroads
Main attack: Obama's sotto voce conversation with Russian president Dmitry Medvedev is actually part of a dastardly plan to extinguish all human life on earth and then repopulate the planet with the offspring of a group of genetically superior supermodels. Okay, that last bit is the plot of Moonraker, but the ad is a clever-ish Bond parody that manages to imply skullduggery on Obama's part even though it is unclear what part of "in my second term I will not need to please voters so much" is either a state secret or controversial.
Click factor: It is kinda amusing.
Truthiness: The picture of Putin with his shirt off is 100% real. Honest.
Strong
Views: 76,771 (#7)
Paid for by: Rick Perry campaign (remember that?)
Main attack: GAYS IN MILITARY UNIFORMS ARE COMING TO KEEP PEOPLE FROM CELEBRATING CHRISTMAS.
Visual style: "Why, I just like to wear barn jackets and stroll across fields while I spout my homophobic bullshit. What of it?"
Click factor: Some people have not seen this ad.
Truthiness: Rick Perry is, in fact, a clueless hayseed reactionary.
Mitt Romney: Some Things You Can't Shake Off
Views: 45,995 (#9)
Paid for by: Democratic National Committee
Main attack: Rhymes with "Metch-a-Wretch." Collects some of Romney's more unequivocal statements of conservatism, with the implication that he will try to get out from under them in the autumn.
Visual style: Perhaps you are familiar with a toy that allows you to draw dark gray lines on a silvery medium?
Truthiness: Romney often appears to be drawn in a monotone pallet.
Sworn American Enemy
Views: 45,357 (#10)
Paid for by: The Democratic National Committee
Main attack: It's a meta attack ad, attacking the Santorum ad for being an attack ad! More specifically, they've zeroed in on a scene in the Santorum video where a flickering image of Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad alternates briefly with a picture of the president. "The GOP's dirty tricks only get worse."
Visual style: Zooming, authoritative interstitials break up the Santorum clip.
Click factor: Everyone loves a conspiracy theory, even those who back the target of the conspiracy theory – because they believe the creators of the conspiracy theory are conspiring against him! There's something very comforting about being assured that your ideological opposites are somehow cheating.
Truthiness: The Santorum campaign has officially denied trying to equate Obama and Ahmadinejad so I guess it must have been a TOTAL COINCIDENCE.