The EU is awarded the 2012 Nobel peace prize for its historic role in uniting the continent, it was announced in Oslo, Norway. Photograph: Olivier Hoslet/EPA Photograph: Olivier Hoslet/EPA
The EU is awarded the 2012 Nobel peace prize for its historic role in uniting the continent, it was announced in Oslo, Norway. Photograph: Olivier Hoslet/EPA Photograph: Olivier Hoslet/EPA
The European Union has won the Nobel peace prize for its efforts to promote peace and democracy in Europe, in the midst of the Union's biggest crisis since its creation in the 1950s.
"The stabilizing part played by the EU has helped to transform most of Europe from a continent of war to a continent of peace," said the committee.
European Commission President Jose Barroso called it a "justified recognition"of a unique project that works for the benefit of its citizens and the world.
Fehim Tastekin writes in the daily Radikal: "It is natural that many smile that the UU received the prize at a time when it seems in its death throes.[…]The EU actually deserved this prize much sooner. […] Nobody will contradict the fact that the EU is a successful peace project, only the timing might be a bit odd. Maybe the prize should have been given to the EU in 1973, when Britain and Ireland were unified with continental Europe or in 2004, when the spirit of the Cold War truly came to end with the enlargement. […] But even if the EU is a peace project, lately it had no impact and influence on world peace. At the moment the question why the EU deserves a peace prize would not be without merit. In a time when racism, xenophobia and Islamophobia abound and convincing political strategies against these developments are lacking…”
I have just been talking to Leon Brittan, trade advisor of the Conservative-Liberal coalition and former member of the European Commission.
Lord Brittan said that far from being an "astonishing decision" it was well-merited.
"It makes a lot of sense," he said. "The focus in this country has been on economic issues which prevents people from remembering the EU's purpose was to use economic measures to achieve its central political purpose of preventing wars - and in that it has been hugely successful."
The continuing desire of countries outside the EU to join the union, was proof of its continuing worth, he added.
"Rewarding the EU for its contribution to peace in a perfectly reasonable thing to do. Whether the timing is tied to the economic situation, I do not know, but whatever the economic problems the EU is experiencing its central purpose has been spectacularly achieved."
My colleague Miriam Elder has sent this from Moscow.
Lyudmila Alexeyeva, the doyenne of Russia’s human rights community, called the committee’s decision strange. “First they gave the Nobel peace prize to Obama and then to the EU – it’s becoming boring and uninteresting for public figures in all countries,” she told the Interfax news agency. “Who are they going to give it to next? The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation?” she asked ironically, referring to an obscure security group that counts Russia, China and four Central Asian republics as members.
“If they’d given it to a political prisoner in Iran, I’d understand it more. I wonder how are they going to photograph the Eu as a prize winner? And how are they going to give out the prize?” she told the Interfax news agency.
The 85-year-old Alexeyeva, who began her human rights work as a Soviet dissident, has been up for the award for several years. Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs, said that with the decision the Nobel committee was “demonstrating its hot desire to actively influence world politics”.
“The European Union really needs good news,” Lukyanov wrote. “And, of course, they will try to use the decision of the Norweigian Nobel committee’s to breathe optimism into the project. But this, of course, will play no decisive role.”
Speaking in Milan to the International Participants Meeting of Expo 2015, Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti said he was joyed to hear of the Nobel announcement: “This very formula of integration aimed at impeding war and advancing peace, which has been in place for many decades, is today object of study and admiration in other parts of the world,” he said.
But while government officials and opinion leaders in Italy lauded the prize as “a seed of hope” in a difficult moment of continental integration, the irony on the street was clear: As the prize was being announced, students marched through 90 cities (and in front of the European Parliament office in Rome) and teachers were striking to protest austerity cuts to education.
Adding sting, Italy’s national institute for statistics announced Friday that the annual inflation rate for frequently purchased items like gas and food had soared to 4.7%, the highest point this year. On the social networks, “tell it to the Greeks” was a frequent sarcastic refrain.
The Norwegian Peace Council has called for the resignation of the head of the Nobel committee after it awarded the peace prize to the European Union. They have sent this statement:
The Norwegian Peace Council takes a critical stance to the endowment. Granting the EU the Nobel Peace Prize for 2012 indicates its highly political dimension, awarding it to a project that for the past year has proven to represent the opposite of peace. The EU suffers from an extensive democratic deficit, with violations of human rights along increasing social inequality. Awarding the prize to the EU illustrates how the Norwegian Nobel Committee repeatedly appoints recipients that are irrelevant and who only serves to consolidate an already well-established societal power structure.
The Norwegian Nobel Committee’s decision does not comply with Alfred Nobel’s mission statement, which sets out to reward peace activists’ efforts throughout the preceding year. To the contrary, the award promotes the Norwegian Nobel Committee’s own interests and political visions. This shows that Thorbjørn Jagland’s earlier assurance that Alfred Nobel’s will shall be respected is mere rhetoric.
The Norwegian Peace Council regards the bestowment of the Nobel Peace Prize for 2012 to the EU as a further confirmation of how the composition of the Norwegian Nobel Committee is overly political. We demand that the Norwegian Parliament considers the appointment of a new committee that includes competent peace activists and peace researchers with a much greater focus on international peace issues. The Norwegian Peace Council argues that the head of the Nobel Committee, Thorbjørn Jagland, should resign.
“I am delighted at the news that the European Union has been awarded the 2012 Nobel Peace Prize, in recognition of its work on reconciliation, democracy, promotion of human rights and in enlarging the area of peace and stability across the continent.In the countries of the EU, historic enemies have become close partners and friends.
I am proud to be part of continuing this work. The creation of the European External Action Service has enabled us to develop a comprehensive approach to better promote Europe’s core values throughout the world.I will continue to work tirelessly to drive this process forward.”
The president of the European parliament, Martin Schulz said:
"This prize is for all EU citizens “It is a great honour that the EU has won this year’s Nobel Peace Prize. This Nobel Peace Prize is for all EU citizens. We in the European Parliament are deeply touched. The European Union has reunified the continent through peaceful means and brought arch enemies together. This historic act of reunification has been rightfully recognised.
The values of human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law and the respect for human rights are absolutely fundamental to the European Union. These fundamental values underpin all of the European Union’s activities both internally and in our external policies. Several nations are freely negotiating accession to the European Union, a sign that despite challenging economic conditions, the European Union is a magnet for stability, prosperity and democracy.
The EU’s principles and values of reconciliation can serve as an inspiration to other regions in the world. From the Balkans to the Caucasus, the EU serves as a beacon for democracy and reconciliation.
On behalf of the European Parliament, we, together with the other EU institutions, look forward to receiving the Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo.”
José Manuel Barroso, President of the European Commission, and Herman Van Rompuy, President of the European Council have issued a joint statement.
“It is a tremendous honour for the European Union to be awarded the 2012 Nobel Peace Prize. This Prize is the strongest possible recognition of the deep political motives behind our Union: the unique effort by ever more European states to overcome war and divisions and to jointly shape a continent of peace and prosperity. It is a Prize not just for the project and the institutions embodying a common interest, but for the 500 million citizens living in our Union.
At its origins the European Union brought together nations emerging from the ruins of devastating World Wars – which originated on this continent – and united them in a project for peace. Over the last sixty years, the European Union has reunified a continent split by the Cold War around values of respect for human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law and respect for human rights.
These are also the values that the European Union promotes in order to make the world a better place for all. The European Union will continue to promote peace and security in the countries close to us and in the world at large. We are proud that the European Union is the world’s largest provider of development assistance and humanitarian aid and is at the forefront of global efforts to fight climate change and promote global public goods.
This Nobel Peace Prize shows that in these difficult times the European Union remains an inspiration for leaders and citizens all over the world.”
It is the reaction you've all been desperate to hear I'm sure, how has the news gone down in Greece?
Our correspondent in Athens Helena Smith has been in touch with this tragicomic dispatch:
Had to break the news to Panos Skourletis, spokesman of Greece’s main opposition Syriza party as he had been in a meeting and not heard the announcement. But his reaction was instant: “This decision cheapens the prize and more importantly harms the institution of the Nobel Peace award. I just cannot understand what the reasoning would be behind it. In many parts of Europe, but especially in Greece we are experiencing what really is a war situation on a daily basis albeit a war that has not been formally declared. There is nothing peaceful about it.”
Petros Constantinou, a municipal councilor who runs a prominent anti-racism group in Athens, called the decision “ridiculous and provocative.”
“To give the prize to an institution of war and racism is ridiculous,” he said. “It provokes democratic and anti-racist sentiment. With its partner NATO, the EU has invaded countries in the Middle East, not to mention Afghanistan. Its actions have created huge streams of refugees which then flood into countries like Greece and when they get here they not only encounter racism but hostile EU [border] agencies like Frontex.”
Ioanna Nikolareizi summed up the mood of many on the street. “It’s absurd. This is a prize that should go to a human being, not an institution that frankly is going down the drain,” said the photographer. “The social unrest we are experiencing in Greece is provoked as a result of European policies. To call them peaceful would be to really stretch the imagination.”
...appears to be rolling its eyes and giving a sizeable Gallic shrug at the news. Kim Willsher writes:
Le Parisien newspaper described the prize as “revenge...for an institution that until now had been forgotten” by the Noble committee.
“This Nobel comes at a time when European unity being greatly tested. The eurozone crisis has put difficulties of solidarity between states worried about protecting their interests, in the spotlight. The rich economies of the north are dragging their feet over coming to the aid of southern countries financially strangled by public debt and suffering severe austerity cures.”
The news website Rue89 said the decision to award the peace prize to the EU was a “paradox”."If Europe has succeeded in making war impossible between its members it has failed to impose itself so well as a power that counts at a world level,” it wrote.
Under the strapline: “The EU, a bureaucratic monstrosity”, Rue89 added: “How to explain to one of the 25 percent of Greeks or Spanish who are unemployed that they are lucky to live in a peaceful universe? How to justify this peace prize when the EU has shown itself to be so powerless, and in a totally unforeseen way, to stop the large scale massacre happening on its doorstep in Syria?”
It wrote that the EU had become “in the eyes of its citizens...a bureaucratic monstrosity”, adding that the prize would no doubt be collected in Oslo by an EU president who less than five per cent of Europeans would recognise the name.
Worse still, it concluded, if Europe failed to surmount its economic crisis the prize would be a “risible memory, or worse, an epitaph for what Europe could have been, should have been.”
My colleague Mark Tran, the Guardian's Global Development correspondent, has sent this as a counterpoint to the detractors:
Something positive to say about the EU. It is a huge aid donor. The EU provides half of global aid, spending €53.1bn in 2011. The European commission by itself is the world’s second largest bilateral donor, after the US. It provided €12.3bn of external aid in 2011. Aid constitutes about 9% of the EU budget.
The OECD’s peer review of EU aid in 2012 found that the EU was a “formidable player in global development” that had taken “positive steps to make the programme more effective and increase its impact” since its previous peer review in 2007. However, it still needed “to make more progress in a number of areas”.
The European Commission is the fifth (out of 72) most transparent donor in the world. It is ranked above every EU member state except the UK and the Netherlands.
Turkey is seeing this as a good moment to remind the Union that it is knocking on the door. Constanze Letsch in Turkey has sent this:
In a telephone interview with CNNTurk, Turkish Minister for EU Affairs Egemen Bagis said: “I say: congratulations. I hope that with this prize EU officials will also take into account that Turkey would make this peace project grow even bigger and stronger, and that it could thus be a global, and not just a continental project.”
Kate Connolly in Berlin has sent some more reaction to the news:
The president of the European parliament, Martin Schulz, a German social democrat, said he was “deeply moved” and “honoured” by the prize. “It can serve as inspiration,” he said via Twitter. “The EU is a unique project that replaces war with peace, hate with solidarity”.
Spiegel Online said the EU was a surprise recipient of the award, not least because “the committee is put together according to political proportional representation and includes two Euro sceptic parties [and] the Norwegians themselves rejected membership of the EU on two occasions”.
Angela Merkel was due to deliver her reaction to the prize in a speech at the Chancellery in Berlin at around 11.30am GMT.
No string of rants about the EU would be complete without the contribution of UKIP leader Nigel Farage. So here we go:
"This goes to show that the Norwegians really do have a sense of humour. The EU may be getting the booby prize for peace because it sure hasn't created prosperity. The EU has created poverty and unemployment for millions.
In the last two years the EU has caused huge animosity between the countries of Northern and Southern Europe. Just look at Frau Merkel being welcomed with Nazi flags in Athens, and German newspapers slagging off the Greeks as work-shy wonders.
After watching European Council President Van Rompuy cheerleading for war in Libya with Colonel Gaddafi, this idea of the EU getting a Nobel Peace is ridiculous."
Nigel Farage: MEP, tea-drinker, eurosceptic. Photograph: Stephen Simpson/LNP Photograph: Stephen Simpson/LNP
Martin Callanan, leader of the European Conservatives and Reformists group in the European Parliament, has sent this. The April Fool's joke is a recurrent theme, it appears.
“The Nobel committee is a little late for an April fools joke. 20 years ago this prize would have been sycophantic but maybe more justified. Today it is downright out of touch.
“Presumably this prize is for the peace and harmony on the streets of Athens and Madrid.The EU’s policies have exacerbated the fallout of the financial crisis and led to social unrest that we haven’t seen for a generation.
“The Nobel Peace Prize was devalued when it was given to newly-elected Barack Obama. By giving the prize to the EU the Nobel committee has undermined the excellent work of the other deserving winners of this prize.”
The first, but I imagine not the last, furious reaction to the decision to award the EU the Nobel prize has landed in my inbox. This one is from Eurosceptic MEP Nikki Sinclaire. This from her press release:
Nikki Sinclaire, who is the We Demand a Referendum MEP for the West Midlands, has questioned why the award has been given to the EU when many of its nations are in turmoil due to financial problems.
Nikki Sinclaire said, “I am astonished at the decision to give the Nobel Peace Prize to the European Union at this time. The EU is currently in turmoil. We have citizens of Greece who are starving because of austerity measures that have been forced upon them. The suicide rate has risen in Greece as people have been unable to support themselves and their families, and the EU has done little for Greece other than tell them that these measures are needed. What about the riots that have taken place in Spain? Forced austerity across Europe is causing major outbreaks of violence and there is much ill-feeling towards these EU enforced measures. We still have major issues in Cyprus, which the EU fails to address. Have I got the date wrong as this feels like an elaborate April Fool’s joke, sadly the joke is on us”.
My colleague Kate Connolly in Berlin has sent this dispatch on reaction in Germany.
Handelsblatt, the German economic daily is reporting in an article under the headline 'Why giving the award to the EU" that Geir Lundestadt, the permanent secretary of the Norwegian Nobel Committee recently said in an interview that the failure of the committee to honour both Mahatma Ghandi and the EU were its "biggest failures".
Steffen Seibert, the German government spokesman has tweeted: "Gluckwuensch an die EU zum Friedensnobelpreis" - congratulations to the EU for winning the Nobel Peace Prize.
European Commission President Jose Barroso has spoken about his delight in accepting the Nobel peace prize on behalf of the European Union.
He joked that he did not expect it to be "such a good day".
"It was with great emotion that I received the news, it is a great honour to be awarded the 2012 Nobel peace prize by the committee," he said.
He called it a "justified recognition"of a unique project that works for the benefit of its citizens and the world.
It was important not to forget that the EU was born from the ashes of the devastation of the Second World War, and that it had brought nations together in peace, he added.
It's values of freedom, democracy, the rule of law and respect for human rights were ones that "people around the world aspire to".
He said the EU was proud to be the world's biggest provider of aid and a leader in the efforts to fight climate change.
Even in difficult times the EU remained a vital institution for its people atand the world, he added.
"The committee and the international community are sending a very important message to the EU that the European Union is something very precious," he said. "[We] should cherish it for the good of Europe and the good of all the world."
We are getting a mixed reaction to the news in comments, as my colleague Hannah Waldram points out:
Some are finding it hard to come to terms with the idea. Ernekid writes:
Giving the EU a Nobel prize is like giving the Royal Mail a Mercury Music award. How can a prize that is supposed to be for one person be given to an amorphous supranational organisation?
Why is this in any way controversial? The EU has been hugely important in promoting democracy and human rights in Spain, Greece, Turkey and Eastern Europe, I don't see how anybody can deny that.
Seems strange how controversial it seems here. I mean 500 million people from widely varying sociocultural backgrounds trying to forge a common-ground in peaceful collaboration, constantly negotiating between a shared cause and more nationally based parochial causes. That's pretty massive. Well done.
That was the question posed to Jagland following the announcement - the question-poser suggested that Spain and Ireland might be somewhat miffed at the decision too.
Jagland said each of these countries had demonstrated their desire to stay in the union - confirming its worth.
"The big majority in these countries are in favour of staying in the EU. This proves how important this Union is for Europeans because of its back ground," he said.
"They do not want to lose what has been achieved. Many may criticise the current policy but that is a different matter."
The Nobel peace prize panel have given their explanation for awarding the prize to the EU.
Here is the full statement:
The Norwegian Nobel Committee has decided that the Nobel Peace Prize for 2012 is to be awarded to the European Union (EU). The union and its forerunners have for over six decades contributed to the advancement of peace and reconciliation, democracy and human rights in Europe.
In the inter-war years, the Norwegian Nobel Committee made several awards to persons who were seeking reconciliation between Germany and France. Since 1945, that reconciliation has become a reality. The dreadful suffering in World War II demonstrated the need for a new Europe. Over a seventy-year period, Germany and France had fought three wars. Today war between Germany and France is unthinkable. This shows how, through well-aimed efforts and by building up mutual confidence, historical enemies can become close partners.
In the 1980s, Greece, Spain and Portugal joined the EU. The introduction of democracy was a condition for their membership. The fall of the Berlin Wall made EU membership possible for several Central and Eastern European countries, thereby opening a new era in European history. The division between East and West has to a large extent been brought to an end; democracy has been strengthened; many ethnically-based national conflicts have been settled.
The admission of Croatia as a member next year, the opening of membership negotiations with Montenegro, and the granting of candidate status to Serbia all strengthen the process of reconciliation in the Balkans. In the past decade, the possibility of EU membership for Turkey has also advanced democracy and human rights in that country.
The EU is currently undergoing grave economic difficulties and considerable social unrest. The Norwegian Nobel Committee wishes to focus on what it sees as the EU's most important result: the successful struggle for peace and reconciliation and for democracy and human rights. The stabilizing part played by the EU has helped to transform most of Europe from a continent of war to a continent of peace.
The work of the EU represents "fraternity between nations", and amounts to a form of the "peace congresses" to which Alfred Nobel refers as criteria for the Peace Prize in his 1895 will.
Thorbjørn Jagland, head of the Oslo-based Nobel Committee said the panel was rewarding the EU for its efforts to promote peace and democracy in Europe, in the midst of the union's biggest crisis since its creation in the 1950s.
It had contributed for six decades to "to the advancement of peace and reconciliation, democracy and human rights in Europe", he said.
"The stabilizing part played by the European Union has helped to transform a once torn Europe from a continent of war to a continent of peace," he said.
European commission president José Manuel Durão Barroso smiles in his office as he learns that the EU is awarded the 2012 Nobel peace prize Photograph: Olivier Hoslet/EPA Photograph: Olivier Hoslet/EPA
The secretary of the Nobel peace prize has made little secret that the prize is being given in part because of the current predicament that the EU finds itself in.
In response to a question about the decision he said the panel were giving a message to the European public, urging them "to secure what they have achieved on this continent" - the panel essentially giving a public and vocal thumbs up and support for the European Union at a critical moment in its history.
So yet another controversial decision from the Norwegian Nobel peace prize panel.
The secretary of the Oslo-based Nobel Committee has announced the EU has been awarded the Nobel prize. He cited the EU’s role in bringing France and Germany closer together, and by helping strengthen democracy in southern as well as central and eastern Europe.
With the EU embroiled in the eurozone crisis and a deep debate over the future of Europe little surprise that one of the first questions in the room was what exactly the EU has done to promote peace in the last year....
A shock winner? Norwegian Nobel committee chairman Thorbjørn Jagland announces the European Union as the recipient of the 2012 Nobel peace prize. Photograph: AFP/Getty Images Photograph: AFP/AFP/Getty Images
Rumours are circulating that "the EU" could have won the Nobel peace prize. Luke Harding has something to say about that:
Speculation that the European Union might be the recipient of this year’s Nobel Peace Prize has already set off an avalanche of Twitter jokes.
The Guardian’s Paul Hamilos (@PaulHamilos) has just tweeted the following irreverent thought: “If the EU really has won the Nobel prize, will Germany collect the prize, then refuse to share it with the Greeks? #amiright”
Over at the Daily Telegraph, meanwhile, home of Eurosceptic thinking, foreign editor David Munk [@davidmunk] has been doing some calculations: “Nobel peace prize: If EU has won Tel Foreign desk thinks citizens get 0.16p (0.19 Euros) each. But have to fly to Norway to claim it...”
To my mind, it seems unlikely that the committee will give the EU the award, after another disastrous year which has seen Europe mired in deepening economic crisis, and amid smouldering tensions between member states — think Germany, Greece, and the angry crowds who recently greeted Angela Merkel in Athens. But it might just be that the committee gives the prize to the EU as a morale-boosting gesture, and in the spirit of pan-European solidarity.
Despite the fact that currently it's only a odd scene of folk milling around a taking pics with some annoying musak, you can follow the Nobel prize announcement on its website.
It provides (apparently):
- up-to-the-minute news about the 2012 Nobel Laureates - press conferences from the Nobel Prize awarding institutions - exclusive interviews with members of the Nobel Committees
My colleague Emma Graham-Harrison, has written from Afghanistan about one of the country's contenders.
Another name that is being touted for the third year in a row is Afghan activist Sima Samar, a doctor who was once minister for women’s affairs and now heads the country’s Independent Human Rights Commission.
There are widespread fears that fragile gains in women’s rights could be at risk as coalition troops withdraw — they are all due to be out of the country by 2014 — and the possibility of some kind of accommodation with the Taliban grows.
Website Foreign Policy points out that "pundits usually do a terrible job predicting the winner of the world's most prestigious peace award", but have taken a punt anyway.
These nominations have gotten a lot of media attention but don't really fit with the Norwegian Nobel Committee's usual left-of-center but not anti-establishment politics. There is the potential for high drama if Julian Assange gives an acceptance speech via satellite from the Ecuadorean Embassy in London.
The European Union
Think of it as the #slatepitch of Nobel Peace Prize nominees. In a year of horrifically bad press for the European Union, the committee could take a stand in favor of the ideals of European integration and highlight the positive role the EU has taken in encouraging democratic reforms and the rule of law in its recently joined members in Eastern Europe.
Facebook/Twitter/Wikipedia
The websites and their founders have reportedly all been nominated. Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg might like the distraction from his company's flagging stock price, but I wouldn't count on it.
With a little head scratching, we've figured out that a #slatepitch, could loosely be defined as "purposefully contrarian pitch that could run on Slate".
Last year three women shared the award – Liberia’s president Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, the Liberian activist Leymah Gbowee and the Yemeni politician Tawakkul Karman. It boosted the number of women winners by 25%. to 15 since 1901. The committee praised their “non-violent struggle for the safety of women and for women’s rights to full participation in peace-building work.”
However, in an embarrassing blow to the committee, Gbowee recently launched a scathing attack on Sirleaf, her fellow laureate and Africa’s first female head of state. Gbowee accused Liberia’s president of nepotism and complacency over poverty reduction, and dramatically quit her post as head of the government’s Peace and Reconciliation Commission. Gbowee, who helped campaign for the president in 2005 and 2011, said:
In her first term she [Sirleaf] developed infrastructure. But what good is infrastructure if people don't have enough to eat? The gap between the rich and poor is growing. You are either rich or dirt poor, there's no middle class.
It was not the first controversy involving Sirleaf since she won the award. Remember this? Sirleaf defending a law that criminalises homosexual acts in Liberia – she said “We like ourselves just the way we are” - while a visibly uncomfortable Tony Blair looks on.
Speaking of Tony Blair, if Obama and Kissinger can win the Nobel peace prize, maybe the former UK prime minister and current Middle East envoy for the Quartet fancies his chances this year ...He did get rid of Saddam Hussein after all ...No?
Good morning and welcome to live coverage of the Nobel peace prize 2012. The five members of the peace prize committee will unveil their decision in Oslo at 10am BST.
Who will join the illustrious list of winners that includes Nelson Mandela (jointly with Frederik Willem de Klerk), Aung San Suu Kyi,Médecins Sans Frontières, Mother Teresa ....and, er, Barack Obama and Henry Kissinger?
There is frenzied speculation that this year’s award could be given to bloggers from the Arab Spring, Russian rights activists or even to Julian Assange, currently holed up in an embassy in Knightsbridge.
This year, the bookies’ favourite (often not a reliable guide) for the Nobel prize is Gene Sharp, one of the world’s leading theorists of non-violence and an emeritus professor at the University of Massachusetts, (Paddy Power has him at 6-4). Sharp is credited with inspiring protests across the globe, from Cairo to Beijing, although some Egyptian dissidents were scornful of Sharp's influence. Two other activists prominent during the Arab Spring are also tipped – 29-year-old Tunisian blogger Lina Ben Mhenni and the celebrated Egyptian internet activist Wael Ghonim (both were also nominated last year).
Sima Samar, chair of the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission and a campaigner for woman's rights, is second favourite with Paddy Power. She has already been honoured with the Right Livliehood award, known as the “alternative Nobel prize”.
Another contender is Ales Belyatsky, an activist from Belarus. Belyatsky was arrested in August 2011 and jailed after a show trial condemned as “political” by the European Union. Putin and his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko are likely to react badly if the Nobel prize is given to their own activists and regard it as unacceptable western meddling.
Following his nomination in 2011, the Wikileaks founder Julian Assange is also on the list – and tipped by the bookies at 16/1. It seems improbable, however, the peace prize committee will give him the award at a time when he is fighting rape allegations and extradition to Stockholm. Assange has been living in the Ecuadorian embassy in London since early summer. He would have to get past the two policemen waiting on the doorstep to arrest him on to collect his prize.
There are several r̶i̶d̶i̶c̶u̶l̶o̶u̶s̶ ̶ long-shot suggestions also on the bookies’ list including Facebook (33/1), the European Union (40/1) and Bono (100/1). Other more credible names doing the rounds in Oslo include the former German chancellor Helmut Kohl, ho has apparently been nominated every year since 1990, when he presided over the reunification of Germany, is 20-1 but now in poor health; the Mexican bishop Jose Raul Lopez, Cuban dissident Oscar Elias Biscet, Cuban blogger Yoani Sanchez, and the instigators of the Burma reform process.
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