The conflict in South Sudan has set the country on course towards a "hunger catastrophe", with almost 4 million people already in dire need of food and humanitarian assistance, and aid agencies warning of a possible famine later this year if urgent supplies do not get through.
Five months of fighting in the newly-created nation have undermined its food security, leaving farmers unable to sow and harvest their crops, fishermen barred from rivers and waterways, and herders prevented from migrating between grazing areas. The growing number of displaced people fleeing the conflict has also placed previously food-secure communities under strain.
According to a new survey by the South Sudanese government and aid and development agencies including the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), the World Food Programme (WFP) and Save the Children, 3.7m people – nearly a third of the population – are now in critical need of humanitarian assistance.
The provisional results of the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis suggest that food security has dropped to alarming levels in the three conflict-affected states of Jonglei, Unity and Upper Nile.
Famine could become a serious risk later this year if adequate humanitarian assistance does not get to those who need it.
"A hunger catastrophe can still be avoided, but humanitarian agencies must be allowed to reach tens of thousands of people in need before it's too late," said Mike Sackett, WFP's interim country director. "It is absolutely critical to stop fighting and other obstacles that prevent life-saving aid deliveries."
He said that although the WFP has managed to deliver food to more than 700,000 people using trucks, boats, airlifts and airdrops, it is still struggling to reach tens of thousands because of the ongoing violence.
The UN agency, which has a funding shortfall of $261m (£154m), is revising its financial estimates and appealing for more donor support in light of the new analysis.
The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (Fewsnet), which also participated in the analysis, said the decline in food security, coupled with high levels of malnutrition and mortality, suggested famine was a possibility in states such as Jonglei and Unity over the next four months.
"This deterioration coincides with the area's lean season, when food insecurity is already at its peak," it said in an alert. "The limited amount of information makes it difficult to pinpoint the specific location of the worst affected populations. However, the counties of greatest concern are Mayendit, Koch, Panyijar, and Leer in Unity state and Ayod, Duk, Uror, and Nyirol in Jonglei state. The worst-off areas of Upper Nile state are Baliet and Panyikang."
Calls for urgent action were echoed by the FAO, which said the analysis should serve as a wake-up call to the warring factions and the world.
"These statistics are a technical way of saying there is widespread hunger and growing malnutrition that combines dangerously with diseases, livelihood losses and, frankly, death," said Sue Lautze, FAO head of office in South Sudan and the UN's deputy humanitarian coordinator there.
She added: "Although this is the most serious crisis to affect South Sudan in at least 15 years, the IPC has concluded there is not a famine situation now … This means there is a small window of opportunity to prevent this terrible crisis from deteriorating into catastrophe."
Lautze said both urgent humanitarian assistance and a rapid end to the fighting were needed to arrest the slide towards famine.
Hopes of a pause in the country's internal conflict were dashed over the weekend, however, when a truce between the government and rebels was broken hours after it came into effect late on Friday.
Under the ceasefire, leaders had agreed to end fighting within 24 hours and to create a transitional government to take the country to new elections. Each party blamed the other for the violation, and by Sunday both sides were in "active combat" around Bentiu – the capital of oil-rich Unity state – according to Lul Ruai Koang, a spokesman for rebel forces.
President Salva Kiir told reporters that government troops had repelled an attack near Bentiu early on Sunday and that the insurgents had also launched an offensive at Mathiang, near Nasir in Upper Nile state. He added: "You've seen now the violations that have happened in one day."
Violence erupted in South Sudan last December after Kiir accused his former deputy, Riek Machar, of plotting a coup. Machar denies the charge.
More than 1.3 million people have fled their homes and thousands have died in the violence between Kiir's ethnic Dinkas and Machar's ethnic Nuers. A UN report on the situation (pdf) last week said there had been gross violations of human rights "on a massive scale".
