Iran nuclear talks: what will we know and when will we know it?

The talks have resumed in Lausanne with a target of getting to some kind of broad agreement on the key issues in dispute concerning Iran’s nuclear weapons programme. The deadline is Tuesday night, but there is a hope shared by the negotiators on all sides that the work can be done by Sunday.

The open question that has come into focus as the deadline approaches is: what exactly will be agreed? It is variously called a “political framework”, a “framework agreement” or a “framework understanding”. It will be a much shorter and less detailed document than the final text of the comprehensive agreement, due to be signed at the end of June. But other than that, there is some confusion over what it will include.

The US side have been fairly consistent in saying it will include concrete details, facts and figures and we in the rest of the world will know what those are soon after the deal is done.

A senior State Department official said:

[W]e have always said it needs to have specifics. We will need to communicate as many specifics as possible to the public in some form or fashion. What that will look like we truly just do not know at this point yet...

But I do want to underscore that we believe and know that we will have to share as many specific details publicly as we can, with the caveat that the work of doing annexes if we can get to a political framework is very tough work. It involves a lot of details that are very important to the implementation of this deal, so noting that as well.

The official added: “We have been very clear that March 31 is a real date and it is an important one.”

Iranian and European officials by contrast, play down the importance of the end-March date. The Iranians talk about a “verbal agreement” with nothing written down. European officials have speculated that no details at all might be released and all the world will see is a handshake. They acknowledge that the Obama administration might be more focused on publishing details it they has Congress to convince, and suggest that the substance of the deal could be presented in a closed door briefing to congressional committees. The Americans are probably more realistic about the likelihood of leaks in such circumstances and see transparency as inevitable and necessary, even if it makes coming to an agreement this weekend in Lausanne.