Paris climate deal is an 'opportunity to change the world'

The Paris climate deal is an “opportunity to change the world”, François Hollande has said as he urged negotiators at the UN talks to adopt the final text of an agreement that will provide powerful momentum to efforts to curb climate change.

The French president said: “We have to take that last step; the step that would enable us to reach our goal. And this would be a decisive step.”

France’s foreign minister, Laurent Fabius, who led the negotiations, said: “Today we are close to the final outcome. It is my deep conviction that we have come up with an ambitious and balanced agreement. Today it is a moment of truth.” He hailed the agreement as a “historic turning point” in climate negotiations that have gone on for decades.

The wording, which has been haggled over by politicians and officials during two weeks of intensive talks, embeds promises from 185 countries to reduce emissions – sufficient to limit warming to somewhere between 2.7C and 3.7C above pre-industrial levels. It also initiates regular national reviews and global “stocktakes” to try to increase these greenhouse gas cuts enough to curb warming to less than 2C above pre-industrial levels, or even 1.5C in the longer term. But the French hosts said the final text would not be released until 12.30pm local time.

Critics will argue that, as it stands, the deal condemns the planet to catastrophic climate changes that will wipe out entire island nations. But supporters say the talks have made major progress in formalising significant carbon cuts that can be built on in future negotiations and send a signal to global investors about the momentum behind clean energy and carbon-reducing projects.

Six years after the Copenhagen climate talks ended in chaos and recriminations, the final text was agreed provisionally on Saturday morning after negotiations went through the night. A phone call between the US president, Barack Obama, and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, and appeals from Hollande and the UN secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, helped to push countries towards agreeing the final draft.

It must now be formally adopted by the full plenary session at the talks and requires unanimous agreement. This is set to take place on Saturday afternoon and evening, and objections at this stage could still scupper a final deal.

But Ban urged countries to finalise the deal. “We have come to a final moment of a journey that has been going on for decades,” he said. “The end now is in sight. Let us now finish the job. The whole world is watching.”

In a speech to the plenary session on Saturday morning that was punctuated by enthusiastic applause, Fabius piled pressure on countries that were holding out by invoking the ghosts of Copenhagen. “Nobody here wants a repeat of what happened in Copenhagen,” he said. “Today, if unfortunately we were to fail, how could we rebuild this hope?” He said failure would mean that “trust in the very ability of the concert of nations” to act on climate would be irrevocably lost.

“The very credibility of multilateralism … this is what is at stake. Quite clearly this text, the one we have built together, our text, is the best possible balance; a balance that will allow each group of countries to go back home with his head held high having achieved something important.”

The negotiations have struck a careful diplomatic trade-off between the need to pull developing countries with high emissions, such as China and India, into the pollution-curbing agreement and the demands by poorer nations that rich countries continue to take the lead in reducing their own carbon pollution. They also want the rich world to help pay for the efforts of the developing world and the impact of current warming.

The deal also recognises the fierce campaign waged by island states and vulnerable countries for an agreement that acknowledges that science says 2C of warming is already dangerous and 2.7C disastrous.

Scientists say 2.7C of warming will have catastrophic consequences, including rises in sea level that would inundate low-lying regions and islands, cause more floods, heatwaves and forest fire conditions, reductions in cropland, and ocean acidification that will severely damage coral reefs.

But even more than the political process to review and ratchet up greenhouse gas cuts to meet the scientific requirements, it is hoped that the Paris pact will send a clear signal to financial investors that the shift to clean energy sources is inevitable.

Key elements of the potential deal include:

• Holding global average temperatures to less than 2C above pre-industrial levels and to “pursue efforts” to limit temperature increases to 1.5C.
• A non-binding decision for countries to review their national targets in 2020 and then every five years with a view to increasing their greenhouse gas cuts, and to hold regular global stocktakes of progress towards the collective temperature goal.
• A recognition that the $100bn a year in climate finance promised by 2020 should be a floor for ongoing assistance, and that the provision of finance should be regularly reviewed along with the national greenhouse gas reduction targets, with a new financing goal to be agreed by 2025.
• A recognition that many countries will suffer losses and damage from the effects of climate change, but which specifically excludes any liability or compensation claims as a result of the agreement.