Why did Burkina Faso become al-Qaida's latest target?

At 7.30pm on Friday evening gunmen attacked Ouagadougou’s Splendid Hotel and the nearby Cappuccino cafe.

Twenty-eight people were killed and dozens more wounded in what was the most serious terrorist incident in Burkina Faso’s history.

An al-Qaida affiliate known as AQIM, or al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, claimed responsibility for the attack shortly after.

Like the group’s November assault on the Radisson Blu hotel in Mali’s capital, the Splendid Hotel was an obvious target for terrorists looking to cause carnage while grabbing the world’s attention.

In a city with little luxury accommodation, the hotel was popular with Burkina Faso’s elites, international businessmen and aid workers visiting the country.

The neighbouring Cappuccino cafe was also often packed with locals and expats. By Saturday morning, 18 nationalities were counted among the dead.

In a statement released online, the group said that the attack was “a new message from the heroic champions of Islam, with their blood and their bodies, to the slaves of the cross, the occupiers of our homes, the looters of our wealth, and who would undermine our security.”

But putting hyperbole and propaganda aside, what message is AQIM looking to send - and for whom is it intended?

For Isis

First, it is a message to rival jihadist groups, particularly Islamic State (Isis), that AQIM is once again a force to be reckoned with.

Weakened by infighting over the last few years, AQIM has seen its reach and influence diminish as Islamic State (Isis) has made significant gains in north and west Africa.

But some of these divisions appear to have healed. Most importantly, the influential Mokhtar Belmokhtar and his Al Murabitun unit are reportedly back in the fold, and have claimed they were responsible for both the Ouagadougou and Bamako attacks.

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For France

Secondly, the attack is a message to France and its Operation Barkhane – a 3,000-strong military force spanning five countries intended to combat Islamist militancy – that the intervention is not working.

Operation Barkhane has a base in Ouagadougou, and French commandos were involved in the response on Friday – but by then it was too late.

AQIM’s expansion has struck again at the heart of a regional capital, sending a strong signal to the international community that French troops alone cannot cope with the problem.

For Burkina Faso

Friday’s attack was also a message to Burkina Faso’s new government that it now falls within AQIM’s expanding theatre of operations.

The latest attack “would seem to be an attempt by AQIM not just to reinforce itself as the main jihadist group in the region, but also to show that it can spread its violent campaign to new frontiers,” said the BBC’s Africa security correspondent, Tomi Oladipo.

This is bad news for the country’s newly-elected president Roch Marc Christian Kaboré, who came into office in November after a year of political turmoil following a coup that forced out long-term president Blaise Compaoré.

For the Burkinabé people

Finally, for the citizens of Burkina Faso, this attack sends a more ominous message: that their fight for genuine self-determination is not over yet.

The mass uprising against Compaoré in October 2014 was notable because it was relatively peaceful.

Even when a key Compaoré ally seized back power from the interim government in late 2015, the popular response was angry but overwhelmingly calm.

But for groups like AQIM, who set themselves up as the only pathway to radical change, the success of people power is an existential threat which must be undermined.

The attack sends a powerful message, sewing seeds of fear, doubt and insecurity in an otherwise positive political win for the Burkinabé people.

A version of this article first appeared on the Daily Maverick