Hurricane Joaquin is the Atlantic hurricane season's 3rd hurricane and 10th named storm of the year. At the time of writing, Joaquin is a Major Hurricane (category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale). Initially, there appeared to be a real threat that parts of the U.S. would see a landfall of the storm. This brings a host of speculation, innuendo, and "social media-rologist" opinions about the storm. Ironically, many of us have been warning about the real story (rain) all along. Joaquin is proving to be an incredible moisture source for rainfall in the South and East (Note the plume or ribbon of moisture coming off the storm into the Carolinas). Motivated by this reality, I remind everyone of 5 mistakes to avoid (and that I saw) as we consume meteorological and preparation information about Joaquin.
1. Don't Forget the Bahamas. The people of the Bahamas are currently feeling the brunt of a rather sluggish Category 4 hurricane (as of 5 pm October 1st). It is important to remember, as with Hurricane Sandy, that many people in the Caribbean region take the first brunt of these storms.
2. Don't Get 1-Model Tunnel Vision. As a meteorologist and former President of the American Meteorological Society (AMS), I am thrilled there is so much enthusiasm for a subject that I have been passionate about since 6th grade. However, this comes with a problem. There is a host of misinformation that gets posted by what we referred to as "social media-rologists" on a past episode of Weather Channel's WxGeeks. One of the biggest violations is people posting 1 model's projected forecast. This is dangerous and irresponsible without proper context. Meteorologists use a hosts of weather models that may have different assumptions, physics, and initial conditions. By now, you have likely seen typical Spaghetti Plots showing various model projections.
Earlier in the week, some social "media-rologists" were selectively posting only the HWRF model's track forecast. Dr. Ryan Maue of WeatherBell analytics tweeted:
Seriously considering turning off HWRF for underage users
Resist the urge to retweet (RT) or share information if you are unsure of the source or cannot verify that other credible or trusted sources are distributing similar information. With flooding threats, we often say "Turn around, don't drown." In social media, I am saying "Be aware, before you share."
In fact, the models as of 5 am eastern (Oct. 2) are mainly showing an offshore solution, but I have cautioned for days not to focus on the hurricane at the expense of the real story this weekend. Rain.
3. The Rain, Don't Forget the Rain. Irrespective of where Joaquin goes, parts of the South and East Coast of the United States from the Carolinas to the Northeast will see a significant and dangerous rainfall event in one of the most urbanized regions of the country. Large rainfall totals on already saturated soils and urban impervious surfaces is a recipe for flooding. The 3-day rainfall totals projected by NOAA's Weather Prediction Center are incredible, particularly for the Carolinas.
This rainfall threat was inevitable even without Joaquin because of a convergence of ample tropical moisture and the large scale weather pattern. A scholarly study in the American Meteorological Society's journal Monthly Weather Review defines a Predecessor Rainfall Event (PRE) as:
meso-and subsynoptic-scale regions of high-impact heavy rainfall that occur well in advance of a recurving tropical cyclones (TCs) over the eastern third of the United States.
Tropical moisture (Precipitable Water) plume streaming off of Joaquin. RAP 12h Forecast. Courtesy of... [+]
The rainfall totals and flood threat projected would be "the" story alone if there wasn't a major hurricane in the picture too. Joaquin may simply amplify the threat. And remember, a study by the National Hurricane Center has noted that inland freshwater flooding is often the most dangerous aspect of a hurricane. I should also caution that even though comparisons to Sandy are being uttered, these storms are different in many ways.
4. Don't Dread Preparation. Preparation is key. Dr. Gina Eosco, a weather communication expert with Eastern Research Group, Inc., posted outstanding guidance (see figure) on preparation and there is also great information at Ready.gov. It is important to establish a culture in this country that says that it is fine to prepare even if nothing happens. After weather events, it is common to hear complaints about preparation for nothing, and this makes meteorologists and emergency managers very aware of the "cry wolf" syndrome. However, I come from the school of thought that says "better safe than sorry."
5. Don't Stop Watching. The National Hurricane Center notes:
Because landfall, if it occurs, is still more than three days
away, it's too early to talk about specific wind, rain, or surge
impacts from Joaquin in the United States.
This means you should continue to monitor the forecast rather than looking at what it is today and drawing conclusion 3 days from now. This is important in any weather situation. Forecasts are dynamic not static. I wrote this advice initially and this has proven to be the case with Joaquin as the models have come into consensus with what the European model as hinting all along: Out to sea. Now the debate and science investigations will start about why European picked up on this before GFS. I am sure I will write about this debate.
