Here are the exit polls results again.
Conservatives: 314
Labour: 266
SNP: 34
Lib Dems: 14
Plaid Cymru: 3
Greens: 1
Ukip: 0
Others: 18
And this is how these results would compare with 2015.
Conservatives: Down 16 on the 2015 seat result
Labour: Up 34
SNP: Down 22
Lib Dems: Up 6
Plaid Cymru: No change
Greens: No change
The short answer is, yes and no.
Broadcasters have been using exit polls since at last 1974 and it is true that in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s there were were some horrific misses. Here are the figures, showing how far the gap was between the predicted majority of the winning part and the actual majority.
October 1974
ITN: Wrong by 12
BBC: Wrong by 132
1979
ITN: Wrong by 20
BBC: Wrong by 29
1983
ITN: Wrong by 28
BBC: Wrong by 2
1987
ITN: Wrong by 34
BBC: Wrong by 76
1992
ITN: Wrong by 62
BBC: Wrong by 70
1997
ITN: Wrong by 20
BBC: Wrong by 6
But in the last decade and a half the exit polls have become much more accurate.
Here are the figures for 2001.
ITN: Wrong by 8
BBC: Wrong by 10
From 2005 onwards there has been a joint exit poll, firstly commissioned for ITN and the BBC, and then, from 2010 onwards, for Sky too. Its record has been much better.
2005
Wrong by 0. It predicted a Labour majority of 66, which Labour got.
2010
Wrong by 0. It said the Tories would be 19 short of a majority, and they were.
2015
Wrong by 22. It said the Tories would be 10 seats short of a majority, but they got a majority of 12.
This chart, posted on Twitter by the Spectator’s Fraser Nelson, makes the same point.
Why we'll probably know the result at 10pm... https://t.co/jQuNfk9GWo pic.twitter.com/QNkyY7DXh6
— Fraser Nelson (@FraserNelson) June 8, 2017
David Dimbleby is reading out the results.
Conservatives: 314
Labour: 266
SNP: 34
Lib Dems: 14
Plaid Cymru: 3
Greens: 1
Ukip: 0
Others: 18
There are 650 seats in the Commons so you need 325 to have a majority. These results suggest Britain is on course for a hung parliament.
From the Sun’s Steve Hawkes.
Rumour Tories could be looking at 400 seats - we'll find out in a min
— steve hawkes (@steve_hawkes) June 8, 2017
The BBC election programme is starting.
But David Dimbleby on the BBC, and ITV and Sky, cannot release the exit polls results until the polls have closed at 10.
(I presume he will wave the paper around first, as a tease.)
Piers Morgan is happy to tweet his prediction just before the exit poll comes out, too.
As exit poll looms, I repeat my prediction: Conservatives to win by 90-100 seat majority. #GE17
— Piers Morgan (@piersmorgan) June 8, 2017
This is from the Daily Mirror’s Kevin Maguire.
Mirror political writers predicting the Tory majority on the exit poll ranges from 35 to 100. I've gone for 70, with a heavy heart
— Kevin Maguire (@Kevin_Maguire) June 8, 2017
This is from ITV’s Daniel Hewitt.
I'm told by the people at councils that know these things that turnout is significantly up in Manchester and Leeds. #GE2017
— Daniel Hewitt (@DanielHewittITV) June 8, 2017
More from Heather ...
Damian Green told me yesterday he thought results would be "variegated". That feels right - not long until we find out.
— Heather Stewart (@GuardianHeather) June 8, 2017
... although I’m not sure what the difference is between varied and “variegated”. Maybe Damien Green was thinking of Jeremy Corbyn’s allotment.
This is from the Sun’s Tom Newton Dunn.
Scotland now looking really good for Tories, I'm told 10-12 gains from the SNP possible #GE2017
— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) June 8, 2017
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