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No Show for Sarko Irish 'No' Torpedoes Sarkozy's EU Presidency Plans

EU leaders are meeting in Brussels Thursday to discuss how to salvage the Lisbon Treaty. But for French President Nicolas Sarkozy, the Irish "no" vote means a personal setback: It has spoiled his plans for a glamorous French EU presidency.

The role of president of the European Union should in theory have been a perfect fit for Nicolas Sarkozy. Not only is he the president of a "grande nation," but he will also be the representative of 27 countries and the mouthpiece of 490 million citizens. It was a role that promised a much-needed dose of glamour for the French, plagued as they are by social conflicts and economic pessimism. To make matters worse, France, after its national team lost 0-2 against Italy, must now endure being eliminated from the Euro 2008 football championship .

Especially for Sarkozy, whose casual behavior in recent months has only rarely been compatible with the dignity of his position as the supreme protector of the Republic, the six-month rotating EU presidency would finally be his opportunity to strike a statesman-like pose on the international stage. And it wouldn't have just been during the assumption of the presidency of the Council of the European Union on July 1, or when Sarkozy gathers together heads of state and government in Paris on July 13 to launch his so-called Mediterranean Union. The opening ceremony at the Olympics in Beijing and a series of high-level appearances in India, Russia and South Africa also promised plenty of glamour for Sarkozy.

Those hopes have now been dashed. Of course, France still has its own presidency logo, and the French EU presidency Web site  is already up and running. But the Irish "no" vote to the EU's Lisbon Treaty  has torpedoed the preparations at the Élysée Palace. Instead of glamorous ceremonies in the name of Europe, officials are attending hectic meetings in Paris, Luxembourg and again in Brussels on Thursday and Friday. And aside from verbal assurances and grim determination, so far there have been no convincing proposals on how the organization is to extract itself  from the current muddled situation.

'A Moment of Truth'

Symbolically enough, when Sarkozy was in Prague on Monday to enlist the support of another hesitant EU member state, the Frenchman's press conference with Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek was interrupted by a sudden downpour. The EU was left figuratively standing in the rain, with Sarkozy suffering especially from Ireland's rejection of the Lisbon Treaty.

After initially promising to be the "president of purchasing power," Sarkozy is now coming under growing pressure at home because of the rising costs of gasoline and food. His brutally enacted working-hours reforms have turned unions, civil servants and teachers against Sarkozy, and even members of his own party are beginning to defy the autocratic leadership of the "Republican monarch." The EU presidency was supposed to be a turning point. After months of steadily declining approval ratings, Sarkozy had hoped that the leadership role would help polish his battered reputation.

He can't exactly fault the Irish for voting "no." Together with the Dutch, the French, with their "non" to the European Constitution, plunged the union into a deep crisis in 2005. And Sarkozy, says Sylvie Goulard, a political scientist and president of the European Movement France, a non-governmental organization that works to promote a united Europe, has also played a part in shaping the EU's negative image. "First he portrayed himself as the savior of the Lisbon Treaty and then, when it came to the issue of a Mediterranean Union, he demonstrated how not to act: without coordination and without consultation. It was a negative object lesson, and he destroyed a lot of things."

There is even more to it than that. Despite repeated appeals from Brussels, the budget deficit in Paris has continued to grow and remains well shy of EU requirements. Nevertheless, Sarkozy planned to launch a whole range of projects in the areas of energy, the environment and immigration. "He created expectations," says Hervé Mariton, a member of the French parliament for Sarkozy's center-right UMP party, "and the presidency is supposed to live up to those expectations. It will be a moment of truth for Sarkozy."

Something Smells Fishy

But that moment is still a long way off for now, possibly even beyond the six-month French EU presidency. Instead of painting himself as a dynamic visionary, Sarkozy must now labor with the minutiae of attempts to bring about a diplomatic solution; instead of trendsetting projects, legal details now dominate the agenda. Perhaps Sarkozy will now be able to prove himself as a crisis manager, says Goulard, who, in her most recent book, "We Need to Tend Our European Garden," argues for a coordinated European policy devoid of solo ventures.

For now, it is only clear that the union will not punish the obstinate Irish with a collective withdrawal of affection. A "two-speed Europe" is not about to materialize just yet. Instead, Sarkozy wants to see the EU become more attractive to member states by focusing on practical issues. "While we work on solving institutional problems, let us find concrete answers to improve the daily lives of Europeans," says the French president, who wants the EU to confront the rising cost of oil and gasoline with a joint initiative -- an idea which has so far elicited only shrugs as a reaction in Brussels.

But Sarkozy would not be Sarkozy if he didn't immediately make the blocked treaty his highest priority. After the EU meeting in Brussels, he plans to champion a Europe that "protects our fellow citizens." He is promising a "presidency close to the people," and yet it is slogans like these that smell a little fishy, no matter how eager for reform Sarkozy claims to be. This is why Sarkozy plans to act quickly, even without the political support of his counterparts, if necessary.

He also plans to convince Ireland's naysayers to support his plans. As soon as his busy schedule allows, Sarkozy plans to pay the Emerald Isle a visit.

Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan

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