There is no doubting that Robert Mugabe is a masterful, if vicious, tactician.
Throughout the bloody election process that ran from March to June, the struggle for power in Zimbabwe was routinely described as an endgame for the incumbent President. And yet, in November, Mr Mugabe has still avoided the checkmate that would remove him from office and liberate his country from decades of misrule.
He has outmanoeuvred internal opponents. Meanwhile every tool of international diplomacy wielded against him has failed.
Mr Mugabe engaged in power-sharing talks with the Movement for Democratic Change, offering its leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, the post of Prime Minister. By even participating in such talks, the MDC risked compromising its principled opposition to Mr Mugabe. Mr Tsvangirai decided, however, that negotiation was better than civil war.
But sowing divisions within the MDC was Mr Mugabe's main purpose in engaging in talks. Another was creating the semblance of a democratic process while under international scrutiny. Now he feels secure enough to drop that charade.
A fact-finding visit to Zimbabwe by former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, former US President Jimmy Carter and human rights activist Graça Machel - wife of Nelson Mandela - was cancelled yesterday when authorities indicated they would not grant visas.
Meanwhile, the President plans to amend the constitution, giving himself new powers to reorganise the government. Since there is not yet agreement on which ministries the opposition will run, the constitutional change is pure chicanery. The longer Mr Mugabe can draw out an argument over government departments, the more distant seems his theft of the presidency.
Mr Mugabe uses condemnation by non-Africans to smear the MDC as pawns of imperialism. Mindful of that risk, the West accepted the approach, led by former South African President Thabo Mbeki, of quiet diplomacy. Blocking the visit by Mr Annan and Ms Machel proves Mr Mugabe holds the views of Africans in as much contempt as he feels for Western opinion.
Meanwhile, the MDC was tricked into accepting a stolen presidency as a fait accompli and Mr Mbeki was complicit.
South Africa has new leadership under President Kgalema Motlanthe and ANC leader Jacob Zuma. They are not wedded to a failed strategy of making friends with Mr Mugabe. For Zimbabwe's sake they must be prepared to make an enemy of him.