A controversial decision to allow China to buy stockpiles of African elephant ivory looks set to go ahead this week after monitors from the group Traffic said the country had cracked down on its illegal domestic trade.
But campaigners are vehemently opposed to the sale, saying it would provide a "smokescreen" for increased poaching.
The 108 tonnes of ivory have been collected from culls in overpopulated areas, natural deaths and seizures and are being offered for sale by Botswana, Namibia, South Africa and Zimbabwe.
International trade in ivory has been illegal since 1989, but in 2006 the Convention for International Trade in Endangered Species (Cites), which oversees the ban, agreed a one-off sale.
Only Japan has been approved as a buyer so far and a sale date is yet to be determined. But there is consensus that the four African countries are holding out for China to be approved, a move that will lead to competition and hence higher prices.
China also has the recommendation of the Cites Secretariat which says that anti-smuggling initiatives by China, the largest blackmarket for illegal ivory, have been effective. Cites's standing committee, meeting in Geneva, will decide if China's controls on the illegal trade are stringent enough to prevent illegal ivory being laundered with stock from the sale or it being re-exported.
"In 2002, China was the principal driver of the illegal trade and made very few seizures," said Tom Milliken, director of eastern and southern African operations for Traffic, which monitors the trade and advises Cites.
"Now it has been making seizures left, right and centre. They've added 100 seizures this year alone. On the domestic front China has moved aggressively."
'Big problem'
The increase in seizures in the past six years has been dramatic. According to the Elephant Trade Information System (Etis), the world's largest database of elephant ivory seizures compiled by Traffic, China is now involved in around 63% of seizures. In 2002 the figure was 6%. Milliken said the contrast with some central African countries is stark: Nigeria has made 12 seizures in 20 years.
Milliken said that China was also cracking down on retailers and had developed systems of certification. "When we go back to stores we flagged up as having illegal ivory they aren't selling it anymore or have been closed down. Product identification cards come with items legally sold and for items over a certain amount you get a photo ID."
Dr Meng Xianlin, head of the Chinese delegation to the Cites meeting in Geneva, said China needed legal ivory to maintain ancient carving traditions. He accepted that Chinese demand for ivory presents a "big problem" for elephant conservation, but argues that "the stockpiles are a positive way to solve this problem."
He added: "There is high pressure to control the illegal trade and we have the mechanism to prohibit illegal ivory going into the legal channel." However, he conceded "we cannot guarantee 100%" effectiveness.
While those supporting approval of the sale believe that linking legal ivory supplies with China's huge demand will reduce poaching and illegal trade, wildlife conservation groups say it still stimulates demand and will have the opposite effect.
A spokeswoman for the International Fund for Animal Welfare (Ifaw) said that only a total ban on China's domestic trade would stem demand. "Any legal trade creates a smokescreen. Any allowance gives a chance for unscrupulous dealers. It's very difficult to know how old ivory is or where it comes from. [Controls] don't solve the problem," she said.
Illegal trade
Michael Wamithi, director of the global Elephants Programme at Ifaw added: "China is the single largest destination for illegal ivory and to accept them as an importer for these legal stocks will only sustain the rampant poaching that African nations are faced with today. We hope Cites puts the brakes on these sales which will undoubtedly prompt even further slaughter."
Mary Rice, head of campaigns for the Environmental Investigation Agency, which carries out undercover investigations into illegal wildlife trading, said it was admirable that China was making seizures. But she said that while the increased activity might satisfy the requirements for approval as a buyer of the stockpiled ivory, it was not enough to stop all illegal trade.
"We think [China] is making headway but it's still not sufficient," she said. "When a sweep of a market is made there are often announcements in advance. Lower end items have certificates but no pictures – there's no way of matching them to the product.
"It's open to abuse. The Secretariat say China has met all the demands but based on the market place we don't see that."
Milliken said the chances of a sale are high: "There's real motivation for this sale. Last July a nine-year rest period after the sale was agreed by Cites so the southern African countries are keen to get this done. I think a sale will go ahead within months of this decision."