Ayatollah Khamenei's speech at Friday prayers will not come as much of a surprise to the protestors lining the streets of Tehran and other cities around Iran, but it will nevertheless be greeted with some disappointment.
Those expecting a degree of compromise found a leader not eager to replicate the reckless swagger of his president-elect, but keen nonetheless to show his support for Ahmadinejad and to note pointedly that he shared the views of the president with respect to social and economic policy, as well his stand on international affairs. For all his attempts to placate the opposition among the elite of the Islamic Republic, especially Hashemi Rafsanjani and Nateq Nuri by criticising the allegations levelled against them, he decided once again to short circuit the process, which in this case he himself initiated, by announcing, before the Guardian Council has had time to investigate the allegations, that there was indeed no fraud. He added for good measure that people should stop protesting and that they would be responsible for any violence that ensued: a comment which has been read by some to mean that a clampdown is imminent. This to be sure is what many of the protestors expect and have been preparing for, but if Khamenei's comments were intended to cow his recalcitrant children then he may find them less inclined to listen to his paternal advice than before. Time will tell how this political clash of wills will unfold but it is now quite clear that Khamenei intends to stand his ground and that he is determined to appear strong and resolute.
That he has taken such an approach reflects both his own perception of his position and status, as well as his reading of history and the ideological worldview according to which he operates.
Firstly it has to be borne in mind that Khamenei has operated within an environment that is unsympathetic to him. He has never been accepted as a religious scholar by his peers and in fairness to him, he had big shoes to fill in succeeding Ayatollah Khomeini.
This is man who has always needed to show that he is in fact in charge and while he has a reputation for prevarication, when a decision does come it is rarely nuanced or innovative. This speech is no exception in this regard. He made his decision about the vote and he is sticking to it, because to change one's mind is to show weakness. Ayatollah Khomeini of course changed his mind frequently, but then when you have genuine charismatic authority, you can do that and get away with it.
Secondly, he will be looking at the lessons of history, particularly in this case the behaviour of the Shah. In this respect he is faced with a dilemma. The regime has laboured for years to portray the Shah as a bloodthirsty tyrant who shot at peaceful demonstrators, yet at the same time it is also generally accepted that the Shah lost his throne because he blinked and failed to use decisive force early enough. Lesson: use decisive force, be strong.
Finally of course there is the worldview. In this respect Khamenei shares much with the Shah in that he seems to believe that responsibility lies with foreigners, especially the British. This particular mantra, repeated by hardliners, is perhaps the most revealing aspect of the whole speech, and much like the Shah before him, shows how out of touch he is with the reality on the ground. It is in truth a difficult judgement call to make, but he will no doubt have been reassured by his closest advisors that a "whiff of grapeshot" should do the trick. All we know for certain is that the stakes have all of a sudden got higher.