An appeal against a ban on Silvio Berlusconi holding public office is to be heard by the European court of human rights, in a move that could potentially see Italy’s scandal-tainted former prime minister leading the country again.
The hearing on Wednesday, six years after he was forced from office, follows his success at forging a winning coalition out of his centre-right Forza Italia and two far-right parties – the Northern League and Brothers of Italy – in regional elections in Sicily earlier this month.
The outcome of the ballot on the southern Italian island was largely seen as a rehearsal for how things might play out in national elections, which must be held before May next year.
It also marked the beginning of an authentic political comeback for the 81-year-old, despite being plagued by a tax fraud conviction, sex scandals and allegations of corruption.
Considering the length of time it takes for the court to deliver a verdict, it is unlikely to come before the general elections. The current five-year term for the Italian government officially expires on 15 March, although the vote could be held as late as May.
“I hope that the Strasbourg court will accept my appeal,” Berlusconi wrote on Twitter on Wednesday. “But my role in the next electoral campaign is clear regardless: I will be in the field looking to take the centre-right into government.”
The billionaire, who was forced to resign from his third term as prime minister in 2011 over claims he paid for sex with an underage sex worker, has hired top lawyers from London’s Doughty Street Chambers to fight his case. He was ejected from parliament and banned from running for office for six years in 2013 due to his tax fraud conviction.
“We’ll have just 30 minutes to set out our argument, the same goes for the government,” Andrea Saccucci, one of the lawyers who will represent Berlusconi in the Strasbourg court, told the Guardian. “It’s pretty standard, but this hearing will attract a lot of attention for obvious reasons.”
In 2012, Berlusconi was given a four-year jail term for the tax fraud conviction, but this was later commuted to four hours community service a week at a home for people with dementia in Milan.
A law known as the Severino decree, which ruled that anyone sentenced to two years or more in prison should be banned from office for at least six years, was passed after Berlusconi’s conviction.
His lawyers will argue that Italy violated European legislation as the decree was applied retroactively, therefore landing Berlusconi with a harsher penalty than the one he would have got when the crime was committed. The tax fraud, related to the purchase of TV rights by his firm Mediaset, dates back to the 1990s.
The team will argue that stripping Berlusconi of his democratic mandate was unfair given the support he retains in Italy, and that the move was open to political manipulation as it was decided by parliament.
“This decision could not be reviewed by a court, there was no appeal, no remedy available,” Saccucci said.
Many eminent jurists at the court are said to support Berlusconi’s case, as well as some respected scholars.
Regardless of whether the ban is lifted, Berlusconi, currently experiencing a high in his 30-year rollercoaster of a political career, could still end up calling the shots in Italy’s next government.
Although opinion polls position Forza Italia in third place – after the insurgent Five Star Movement and the centre-left Democratic party – the party has gained ground since his coalition’s Sicily victory.
A recent change in electoral law allowing alliances to be formed before elections could see the same group replicate its success nationally, fending off the Eurosceptic 5Star Movement, which refuses to forge coalitions and which many voters are still wary of, and the Democratic party, which has been in crisis ever since leader Matteo Renzi was forced to quit as prime minister after his botched referendum on constitutional reform last December.
“With Renzi’s star vanishing, Berlusconi has surprisingly emerged as the only pro-European, pro-markets, pro-stability politician around,” said Francesco Giavazzi, an economics professor at Milan’s Bocconi University.
“I think the centre-right coalition is very likely to come out first, and maybe with enough votes even to form a government.”
Giavazzi also pointed to Berlusconi’s many supporters, recalling Forza Italia winning 25% of the vote in the 2013 elections.
“This is an ageing population, but many of those voters are still alive and kicking, so he has a strong core … there are also many who might think that Berlusconi is the best option for keeping the Five Star Movement out, even if they don’t like him.”
Roberto D’Alimonte, a political science professor at Rome’s Luiss University, said that with or without the pending court ruling, Berlusconi was a kingmaker.
“There’ll be no winner [in the elections], the winner will be Berlusconi. He is on the rise because he is liked, he has resources and because his rivals are weak and, in some cases, incompetent.”
