Actual Number Of Coronavirus Deaths Is Likely Far Higher Than Official Tally, Studies Suggest

TOPLINE

The number of confirmed deaths in the U.S. due to Covid-19 is significantly lower than the actual amount of fatalities, a number of recent studies indicate, and according to health experts, "fear of seeking care in hospitals overwhelmed by the pandemic may have caused thousands of deaths."

WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 30: Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and ... [+] Infectious Diseases, adjusts a Washington Nationals protective mask while arriving to a Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee hearing on June 30, 2020 in Washington, DC. Top federal health officials are expected to discuss efforts to get back to work and school during the coronavirus pandemic. (Photo by Al Drago - Pool/Getty Images)

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KEY FACTS

According to the CDC, more than 2.6 million Americans have been infected by the virus, which has resulted in at least 128,000 deaths.

A study published Wednesday by researchers at Yale University found that the number of deaths due to any cause in the U.S. from March 1 through May 30 were about 122,300 higher than the same period a year ago, which is 28% higher than the number of reported deaths from Covid-19.

"Our analyses suggest that the official tally of deaths due to Covid-19 represent a substantial undercount of the true burden," said Dan Weinberger, an epidemiologist at Yale School of Public Health and a lead author of the study.

A 57-page research paper from researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology claims the real number of coronavirus cases worldwide is nearly 12 times higher than officially reported — with approximately 50% more deaths.

According to an analysis of federal data by The Washington Post, "many patients suffering from serious conditions died as a result of delaying or not seeking care as the outbreak progressed and swamped some hospitals."

A Virginia Commonwealth University study published Wednesday shows that deaths from causes unrelated to Covid-19 rose sharply in states that saw the most coronavirus deaths in March and April, including a staggering 398% heart disease death rate increase and a 356% diabetes death rate increase in New York City.

Key Background:

The undercounting of coronavirus deaths is a subject that health officials have been concerned about since the very start of the pandemic. When the government's top infectious disease expert, Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, was testifying before the Senate in early May, Sen. Bernie Sanders asked him, "The official statistic is that 80,000 Americans have died from the pandemic. There are some epidemiologists who suggest the number may be 50 percent higher than that. What do you think?" Fauci responded, "I'm not sure, Senator Sanders, if it's going to be 50 percent higher, but most of us feel that the number of deaths are likely higher than that number." Fauci added, "there may have been people who died at home who did have Covid, who are not counted as Covid because they never really got to the hospital… I don't know exactly what percent higher, but almost certainly it's higher."

Chief Critics:

A number of prominent Republicans have recently downplayed the analysis and guidance of scientists, researchers and health experts such as Dr. Fauci. Congressman Andy Biggs, a Republican from Arizona, has called for the White House's Covid-19 task force to be disbanded so that "President Trump's message is not mitigated or distorted." In a statement released Thursday, Biggs argues that it is "imperative" the president is "not undermined in his mission to return our economy to greatness." At a Senate hearing earlier this week, Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky aggressively questioned federal health experts' guidance. "We shouldn't presume that a group of experts somehow knows what's best for everyone," Paul said.

Critical Quote:

"By alerting the public earlier and reducing contacts, extensive testing when the pandemic was declared could have averted 35.3 million cases and 197,000 deaths. However, future outcomes are less dependent on testing and more contingent on the willingness of communities and governments to reduce transmission," said MIT researchers.

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