TOPLINE
Shelter-in-place orders enacted in 42 states and the District of Columbia between March 21 and May 15 saved between 250,000 and 370,000 people in the United States from dying of coronavirus, according to a peer-reviewed study published in the journal Health Affairs, a telling statistic as states now struggle with rising cases and hospitalization after reopening.
HOUSTON, TEXAS-JULY 1, 2020-Medical student Angelina Olivares, 29, center, looks at the scan of a ... [+]
KEY FACTS
Shelter-in-place orders reduced hospitalization growth rate by up to 8.4% across 19 states studied, the researchers estimate, concluding that they "played a key role in flattening the curves not only for cases, but also for deaths and hospitalizations, and eased pressure on hospitals from avoided Covid-19 admissions."
Since the end date for the study, states have lifted stay-at-home orders and eased social distancing restrictions, which likely led to a resurgence in cases, especially in the southern and western parts of the country.
In three of the nation's current hotspots, record increases in daily cases and hospitalizations have led to their highest daily death figures since the start of the pandemic, with California reporting 149 deaths, Florida, 120 and Texas 105 on Thursday.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the country's top infectious disease official, said Wednesday that "any state that is having a serious problem, that state should seriously look at shutting down," though noted the following day that it needn't be a "complete shutdown."
The Trump administration has been adamant about continuing to reopen the economy, with the president stating in mid-June, "We won't be closing the country again, we won't have to do that."
However, the federal government cannot stop a governor from pausing reopening plans, as several states have already done, and it also doesn't have authority over state-level shutdowns, with governors like California's Gavin Newsom recently reinstituting some closures.
Crucial Quote
The study did note the effects such orders have on the economy. "Of course, [shelter-in-place orders] also generate a large economic toll and are not sustainable over extensive periods. Understanding their effects on cases, deaths and hospitalizations can help inform policy responses." On Thursday, analysis from Goldman Sachs found that universal mask use to prevent further lockdown orders, which may be necessitated due to rushed reopenings, would save 5% of the GDP, or around $1 trillion.
Big Number
208,255. That's how many deaths the University of Washington's influential Covid-19 model is now forecasting by November, with a surge predicted due to pneumonia seasonality at the start of the autumn season. It notes, however, that the number could be reduced by 22% if mask use became widespread.
Key background
The U.S. has failed to get through the first wave of its Covid-19 outbreak, with daily cases nationwide now at record highs. The country leads the globe in cases with 3,108,141, as well as reported deaths with 133,106.
