TOPLINE
As the U.S. continues to tally nearly 70,000 new cases each day, a coronavirus model used by the White House is now forecasting 230,000 deaths by November 1—upping previous predictions and eclipsing the country’s current death toll by 77,000.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, testifies ... [+]
KEY FACTS
The new Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IMHE) model was released as a part of the Centers for Disease Control’s routine coronavirus death toll update.
As the country has struggled to get the pandemic under control, the model’s predicted death toll has continued to jump, estimating 208,254 by Nov. 1 on July 7 and then 224,000 a week later.
This most recent update puts the number at 230,822, a 10% increase in estimated fatalities from the model’s prediction three weeks ago.
Counting 153,000 deaths since the pandemic reached the U.S., this estimation suggests an additional 77,000 Americans could lose their lives in the next three months.
The IMHE notes that fatalities could be sharply decreased to 198,831 if the country had a universal mask mandate.
The CDC is predicting the number of Covid-19 deaths per week may increase to between 5,000 and 11,000 until August 22, meaning the country could reach up to 182,000 total deaths in the next three weeks.
Key Background
The CDC highlights in particular Alabama, Kentucky, New Jersey, Puerto Rico, Tennessee and Washington as facing an expected rise in deaths per week over the next month. While cases are still high, a glimmer of hope is that the number of patients needing ICU beds, invasive ventilators and other hospital resources is significantly lower than in April and May, according to the IMHE model.
News Peg
On Friday, top U.S. health officials, including infectious diseases expert Dr. Anthony Fauci, addressed the country’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic and discussed plans moving forward. Fauci said he was “cautiously optimistic” a safe and effective vaccine will be possible this year.
Big Number: 300,000
The number of new cases reported by the World Health Organization over the last 24 hours. This marks the largest single-day increase ever, with more than half of the new cases coming from the Americas.
