TOPLINE
The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation now predicts almost 300,000 Americans will die from the disease by Dec. 1, an 86% increase from the current death toll, and a 260% increase from the institute’s launch of its coronavirus model in March, showing how much the outbreak in the U.S. has worsened.
A reflection of the United States Capitol is seen on Thursday in Washington, DC.
KEY FACTS
The respected IHME model, which was referred to by the White House in coronavirus press briefings this past spring, assumes that if localities continue to ease restrictions until infections hit a certain threshold, about 295,000 total deaths will occur by December 1.
Conversely, the model predicts that if 95% of the population wore masks, it would cause a 49% decrease in the projected death toll, leading to about 228,000 deaths.
If localities continue to ease restrictions without regard to spiking infection rates, nearly 400,000 Americans are projected to die by December.
Thursday’s update contrasts with the model’s launch in March, which projected 81,000 deaths “through the epidemic’s first wave,” but the death toll as of Thursday stands at 158,000.
The World Health Organization disputed the notion of waves in a July 28 press conference, pointing to the U.S.’ world-leading totals of infections and deaths, with one official suggesting the pandemic should be thought of as “one big wave.”
The University of Washington model is one of around a dozen tracking and predicting infections and deaths, and a FiveThirtyEight analysis shows how they differ in their assumptions of people’s behavior and government action to control the virus, with all predicting an upward trajectory in deaths.
Crucial quote
“We’re seeing a rollercoaster as people are wearing masks and socially distancing more frequently as infections increase,” tweeted Ali Mokdad, a University of Washington professor who works on the model. “When infections drop, people let their guard down and stop taking these measures which leads to more infections and the deadly cycle starts over again.”
Key background
The University of Washington model’s death forecast has steadily ticked upward as the pandemic has progressed, along with the other influential models tracked by FiveThirtyEight. Despite mounting criticism that the U.S. has failed to contain the disease, President Trump claimed Thursday that “nobody can do what I’ve done” in controlling the pandemic. As Axios reporter Jonathan Swan pointed out to Trump during a bombastic HBO interview, the U.S. has one of the highest mortality rates as a proportion of population of any country in the world.
Tangent
The impact of school reopenings will be added to the University of Washington model in future updates, Mokdad tweeted, once more data is collected.
Further reading
Coronavirus Model Used By White House Predicts 230,000 Dead By November (Forbes)
New IHME Model Projects More Than 224,000 Coronavirus Deaths In U.S. By Nov. 1 (Forbes)
Coronavirus Model Used By White House Predicts 10% Increase In Death Toll (Forbes)
