Israel’s war turned much of northern Gaza into an uninhabitable moonscape. Palestinians returning to their homes in the southern part of the coastal strip this week were greeted by a similar lifeless vista of destruction. It might be some relief that Israeli forces have withdrawn from much of Gaza. But one is reminded of what Tacitus said of the Roman legions: “They make a desert and call it peace.”
The ending of a four-month long assault on Khan Yunis and the allowing of more aid into Gaza have been positive steps. These should help talks in Cairo to end the fighting permanently. The Biden White House is also increasing pressure on Israel to negotiate a deal for a ceasefire and the release of hostages held by Hamas. The drop in violence may not last long. Neither side, at present, seem willing to make the concessions needed for a durable peace.
Hamas might calculate that there’s no reason to rush with global outrage undimmed over Israel’s excessive use of lethal force. That is a perilous road to tread. On Tuesday, Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, was forced by his far-right cabinet members to commit – over US objections – to a military offensive into Rafah, where more than a million people have sought refuge. Mr Netanyahu perhaps thinks he can also wait out the war, eyeing a possible Trump presidency that would be more favourable to him. He may also be gambling that Hamas will reject any compromise and be blamed for the failure of negotiations by the Americans.
The US president’s advice last year to Mr Netanyahu was to get a new cabinet. He should have taken it. Without a peace deal that everyone can live with, Gaza will slide into chaos leaving Mr Netanyahu not only without achieving his stated aim of “crushing” Hamas but also potentially embroiling his soldiers in years of bloody insurgency. Last month, the Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community predicted that Israel “probably will face lingering armed resistance from Hamas for years to come, and the military will struggle to neutralise Hamas’s underground infrastructure, which allows insurgents to hide, regain strength, and surprise Israeli forces”.
More than 33,000 people in Gaza, the majority women and children, have been killed in the fighting. Hundreds of thousands face famine as food and fuel supplies run dangerously low. The seeds of a forever war are being planted in Gaza. Only the hardliners and warmongers win in such a scenario.
A two-state solution is the only realistic possibility for long-term, peaceful coexistence. That still leaves the problem of getting there from a “here” in which Gaza is a shattered shell of itself, the territorial integrity of the West Bank keeps receding, boundaries in Jerusalem become increasingly scrambled and any trust between the population on both sides has vanished. The first step must be a ceasefire and the release of all hostages. If Israel and Hamas refuse to play ball, then the international community, led by the US, should negotiate a UN security council resolution like the one that ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah conflict. That might mean also recognising Palestinian statehood, which ought to give Mr Netanyahu pause for thought.